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摘要


In this paper, a novel discrete grey DGM (1,1,k,k^2) model with time power term is presented, and the prediction formula is deduced, the parameter estimation method is given, and the initial value is optimized. This is a further extension after the discrete DGM(1,1) model, DGM(1,1,k) model and DGM(1,1,k^α) model. Finally, the model has been applied to predict cumulative oil production, and good simulation and prediction results have been achieved, which shows that the model is reliable.

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