The Estimation and Analysis of Decommissioned Quantity of New Energy Vehicle Traction Battery in China

Rui Wang ； Song Hu ； Xiaotong Jiang ； Meng Wu ； Pan Wang ； Longhui Li

《World Scientific Research Journal》 7卷6期 (2021/06) Pp. 386-392

https://doi.org/10.6911/WSRJ.202106_7(6).0050

摘要

With the rapid development of China NEV industry, large‐scale decommissioning of traction batteries is coming. Waste traction battery recycling and utilization have been highly concerned by the government and the public. The prediction and analysis of decommissioned traction battery quantity are of great significance to carry out the planning of recycling industry layout in advance. This paper set up a model to forecast the decommissioned traction battery quantity from 2021 to 2030, of which the factors involve the quantity of used traction batteries in the past, vehicle type, vehicle application sceario, battery type, etc. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2030, the decommissioned quantity in China will grow rapidly, while in 2022 and 2026 the growth rate will be much more higher. The decommissioned quantity in 2030 will reach 128GWh.

關鍵字

New Energy Vehicle ； Traction battery ； The decommissioned quantity ； Estimation

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