Evaluation Model of Water Resources Comprehensive Index based on Grey Correlation Analysis and GM (1, 1) Prediction

Feixiang Liu ； Peiyi Zhu ； Haoqi Liang ； Yuxuan Cui ； Xiao Wang

《International Core Journal of Engineering》 8卷5期 (2022/05) Pp. 364-381

https://doi.org/10.6919/ICJE.202205_8(5).0045

摘要

To solve the looming problem of water shortage. A set of scientific and objective evaluation, prediction and intervention measures system is the key to solve the problem of water shortage. So our team came up with such a system. First, we put forward 8 indicators from two aspects of material shortage and economic shortage. The grey correlation coefficient of each index is calculated, and then the water resource evaluation index WRI is obtained. Second, we use this evaluation system to evaluate five representative countries. The analysis of the reasons for the lack of water resources in this region is highly consistent with the indicators proposed by our evaluation system, proving that our indicators and evaluation system have advantages in water resources. We then conducted a comprehensive assessment of Yemen. Predicting the water resources situation in Yemen in the next 15 years through the GM (1, 1) model. Finally, in order to solve the problem of water resources in Yemen, we provide a complete set of indicators improvement plan for the Yemen government to refer to, and use the GM(1, 1) forecast to improve our plan. If the Yemen government can strictly follow our improvement plan, Water scarcity in Yemen will be improved.

關鍵字

Grey Association Degree Analysis ； Grey Prediction Model ； Intervene Yemeni Water Resource

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