Seismic Hazard Analysis in Wuhan

Wenqian Tong ； Shuangxi Zhang ； Yu Wei ； Chen Xu ； Ping Xie

《International Core Journal of Engineering》 8卷8期 (2022/08) Pp. 226-234

https://doi.org/10.6919/ICJE.202208_8(8).0031

摘要

Because of rapid urban development and the need for earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in Wuhan, this study focused on potential seismic hazards in and around Wuhan. The analysis was based on the historical seismic records and the investigation results of major deep and large faults in Wuhan, and surrounding areas. The potential source region of the study area was calculated by using the Extreme Learning Machine. Results show that most of the study area is considered relatively safe, as it has a potential earthquake magnitude of below 4.0. The maximum magnitude of potential earthquakes of the buried active faults in the study area was estimated by combining the seismic structure analogy method, G-R relation extrapolation method, Kojiro-Miyake empirical relation method, and maximum historical earthquake method. Most of the faults in the areas have a maximum magnitude of 5.0. However, the Tuanfeng-Macheng fault has a potential magnitude of 6.0. The Brownian Passage Time model was used to calculate the occurrence probability of severe earthquakes in the study area, in the next 20-50 years. The results show that over the next 30 years, there is little possibility of earthquakes occurring in the area with a magnitude of 4.75 or higher.

關鍵字

Seismic Hazard Analysis ； Buried Fault ； Maximum Magnitude ； Earthquake Recurrence Probability

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