台灣物價變動趨勢之分析

鄭雅綺

《台灣經濟論衡》 2卷9期 (2004/09) Pp. 47-70

並列摘要

Since the beginning of 2004, three price-movement changes have emerged that deserve careful watching. First, the consumer price index (CPI) has halted its decline and rebounded smartly. The CPI rose an average of 1.37% during the first eight months of the year, surging 3.32% in July alone and climbing a further 2.53% in August, reflecting gains in wholesale prices and the prices of imported consumer goods. Second, the domestic sales price index, after rising sharply in 2003, has this year posted large monthly increases. These increases substantially exceed those in import prices, a rarely observed phenomenon that is at the heart of current price fluctuations. Third, the price differential between exports and imports has widened to a new record low, resulting in a continuing erosion of domestic economic welfare. Although the functioning of the market mechanism could restore a balance between the supply of and demand for oil and other important raw materials, it is difficult to predict how long it may take for this process to work and how high prices will rise. In the meantime, we will have to get used to upwardly trending world prices for oil and other key raw materials, which could translate into slower economic growth, rising inflation, and a higher level of unemployment. Policymakers should formulate a ready response to minimize the potential economic impact of such developments.