財政重整經濟效益的分析與啟示

The Economic Impact of Fiscal Consolidation: Analysis and Lessons

趙文志(Wen-Chih Chao)

《台灣經濟論衡》 10卷5期 (2012/05) Pp. 70-104

摘要

後金融海嘯時代，許多國家面臨了「削減支出以健全財政」與「擴大支出以刺激經濟」的兩難抉擇。本文旨在釐清財政重整對經濟的短期影響與效益，並透過檢討推動財政重整國家的成功案例，期望能從其中學習到經驗與教訓。特別是，近年來我國政府歲出歲入短差龐鉅，債務累積未償餘額快速增加，財政問題浮現，本文的研究發現亦可提供我國未來在規劃與推動財政重整計畫時參考。

並列摘要

In the post-global financial crisis era, many countries face the dilemma of whether to restore the financial integrity by fiscal consolidation now or to stimulate the economy by more fiscal expansion and deal with the aftermath later. The purpose of this study is to examine and clarify the short-term and long-term impacts of fiscal consolidation on economy activity, and, by investigating a successful case done by Sweden in 1990s, to gain some understanding of how to implement it and what the strategies are. In the end, the knowledge gained and lessons learned from this study may prove to be useful for Taiwan, since the government in Taiwan currently face some major challenges in public finance management, and will need to carry out its own fiscal consolidation plan sooner or later.