歐債危機對台、中、韓產業影響評估與因應對策

Assessment of the Impact of the European Debt Crisis on Industry in Taiwan, China and Korea, and Policy Responses

施友元(Yu-Yuan Shih)

《台灣經濟論衡》 11卷4期 (2013/04) Pp. 18-44

摘要

2012年歐債危機持續延燒，衝擊全球經濟成長，台、中、韓的經貿及產業活動皆受衝擊，相關影響及交互變化值得關切。本文參考Miller與Blair（1985）區域間投入產出（IRIO）模型理論，由貿易面切入，利用跨國投入產出模型，評估歐債危機對台、中、韓經濟及產業的衝擊。模擬結果如下：（1）將使台灣2012年GDP成長率減少1.47個百分點，研究結果與亞洲開發銀行（ADB）（2012）估計結果相近；（2）對台、中、韓三國帶來之產值受損程度由高而低依序為中（239.5億美元）、韓（112.45億美元）、台（22.3億美元）；（3）台、中、韓產值受損的前兩大產業相同，一為運輸工具，二為家用電器、電子零組件及電腦等產品。本研究報告運用模擬結果，並參考中國大陸及南韓因應歐債危機的振興經濟措施，試提政策建議，重點包括：宜優先調降產業關聯效果較高之轎車及大容量家電的個別貨物稅；加強節能減碳家電產品的補貼；建立兩岸紡織業的合作策略，轉為拓銷中國大陸內需市場等。

關鍵字

歐債危機 ； 區域間投入產出（IRIO）模型

並列摘要

In 2012, the European debt crisis continued to spread, impacting global economic growth. Taiwan, China and Korea all suffered impacts on their economic, trade and industrial activity. This study refers to the Miller and Blair (1985) inter-regional input-output( IRIO) model and employs a cross-border input-output model to assess how the economies and industries in Taiwan, China and Korea were affected by the European debt crisis. The study finds that:( 1) The European debt crisis caused a reduction of 1.47 of a percentage point in Taiwan's economic growth rate in 2012, which is close to the estimation made by the Asian Development Bank( ADB) in 2012.( 2) Among Taiwan, China and Korea, China suffered the heaviest loss of output, at a value of US$23.95 billion, followed by Korea at US$11.245 billion and Taiwan at US$2.23 billion.( 3) The major industries that suffered the biggest losses were the same in all three countries, with transportation vehicles the worst affected, and with household appliances, electronic parts and components, and computers and other electronic products the second-worst affected. Also, taking account of the policy responses of China and Korea and matching them with the simulation results, this study presents the following suggestions: That the government should( 1) prioritize reducing goods tax on cars and large-capacity household electrical appliances, as items with relatively large industrial linkage effects;( 2) bolster subsidies for energy-saving and carbon-reducing household electrical appliances; and( 3) establish a strategy for cooperation in the cross-strait textile industry, with a shift toward targeting sales in the mainland domestic market.

並列關鍵字

The European debt crisis ； Inter-regional input-output(IRIO) model