印尼佐科威政府的兩岸政策－動態平衡關係中的避險戰略

Indonesian Jokowi Administration's Cross-strait Policy: Hedging Strategy in Dynamic Equilibrium

鄧克禮(Teng, Ke-Li)

《展望與探索月刊》 16卷8期 (2018/08) Pp. 37-65

摘要

印尼總統佐科威就任後，曾透露將調整該國的兩岸政策，顯示要跳脫過去印尼在美國等西方國家影響下的傳統反共立場之影響，並藉中國大陸（以下簡稱大陸）經濟發展成果，帶動印尼國內的基礎建設與經濟發展，在未來亞太整體持續發展趨勢中獲取最大利益。可能檢討遵守的所謂「一中」政策，希望藉對臺灣採取較友善態度，做為印尼對大陸政策的平衡槓桿。因此，印尼在兩岸之間可以採取避險戰略，對印尼而言，只要大陸的政策能為印尼人民帶來利益與福祉，也就符合印尼的國家利益，而願意配合大陸的外交政策。由於大陸對於印尼在安全領域上威脅性較弱，而雙方經濟的依賴程度則相對較強，印尼透過避險戰略的實踐，採政睦經合策略來爭取大陸經貿發展紅利，以追求國家利益的極大化。並利用臺灣與大陸關係短期內尚難協調之現況，採取動態平衡策略，儘管印尼和大陸近年加強經貿關係，但在某些領域，當印尼不願意大陸太深入影響其國內經濟發展時，藉重經輕政引進臺灣的經濟力量，則成為一項不錯的平衡選擇，同時提供了臺灣在東南亞扮演角色之機會。

關鍵字

一中政策 ； 重經輕政 ； 動態平衡 ； 避險戰略

並列摘要

After Indonesian President Joko Widodo took office, he showed that he would modify his cross-strait policy. It meant he would give up Indonesia's traditional anti-communist stance under the influence of western countries such as the United States and promote Indonesia's infrastructure and economic development by way of China's economic development to obtain the most benefits in Asia-Pacific region in the future. It is possible Jokowi will review the so-called ＂one China＂ policy and adopt a friendlier approach towards Taiwan as a leverage facing mainland China. So Indonesia may employ a hedging strategy between two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Indonesia will cooperate with China as long as China's policies meet its national interests, which can also bring the benefits and well-being to Indonesians. As mainland China is less threatening to Indonesia in the security field and economic dependence is relatively strong, Indonesia can implement the hedging strategy to pursue the maximization of national interests through economic & political cooperation with mainland China earning its economic and trade development bonus. At the same time, Indonesia may adopt the dynamic equilibrium strategy based on the currently difficult situation between Taiwan's new government and mainland China, which is not easily to be improved in a short time. Although Indonesia and China have strengthened economic and trade relations in recent years, in some areas Indonesia is reluctant to let mainland China deeply affect its domestic economic development. So the introduction of Taiwan's economic power has become a quite good option for balance, which also provides an opportunity for Taiwan to play a role in Southeast Asia.

並列關鍵字

＂One China＂ policy ； ＂Heavy Economy Light Politics＂ ； Dynamic Equilibrium ； Hedging Strategy