Demand Forecasting of Emergency Materials based on Fuzzy Case-based Reasoning

Gengjun Gao ； Liwen Zhang

《Frontiers in Economics and Management》 3卷4期 (2022/04) Pp. 37-45

https://doi.org/10.6981/FEM.202204_3(4).0006

摘要

The sudden outbreak of covid-19 pneumonia has made our emergency supplies support system face the urgent impact of large-scale development. The shortage of emergency supplies, the lack of timely production, unreasonable transportation of goods, and the low efficiency of distribution and distribution are all problems exposed in the system.Whether the materials can be reliably predicted will directly affect the prevention and control work in areas with serious epidemic. Therefore, this paper introduces the relevant basic theories of case-based reasoning and fuzzy programming model. After studying a large number of relevant literature, we creatively use the combination of case-based reasoning and fuzzy programming to find the most similar case samples in the case base,Then calculate through the data of case analysis, provide theoretical and practical application for the research of emergency material demand prediction, realize the purpose of setting a reasonable and safe material supply level for the material guarantee system in the emergency supply chain, and solve how to set and maintain a reasonable emergency material supply in the emergency supply chain,It can balance the risks and losses caused by the uncertainty of material demand to the reliability of emergency supply chain in an efficient and standard way.

關鍵字

Demand Forecasting ； Case-based Reasoning ； Fuzzy Programming ； Emergency Supply Chain Reliability

參考文獻

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