Regime Shift Warnings in the Lake Eutrophication Ecosystem Subject to Non-Gaussian Input Fluctuation

Jian Liu ； Jiaqi Guo ； Bing Hu ； Zijian Qiao ； Chuanlai Zang

《Frontiers in Sustainable Development》 1卷5期 (2021/08) Pp. 40-53

https://doi.org/10.29500/FSD.202108_1(5).0005

摘要

The lake eutrophication dynamics of bistable states in stochastic models have been investigated extensively in the regime of Gaussian perturbations, and fluctuations in environmental parameters can causes state switching between oligotrophic and eutrophic states, thereby creating a disruption of ecological balance. In this paper, we explore the impact of non-Gaussian fluctuations in phosphorus intake on the dynamic behavior of the bistable lake eutrophication ecosystem with phosphorus cycle. The bifurcation diagrams of the lake eutrophication ecosystem within bistability are described to show the non-Gaussian effect. It is found that the region of bistability is not only associated with the non-Gaussian noise intensity (α) but also with the correlation time (τ), which is the exhibition of non-Gaussian benefits. More interestingly, in the absent of fluctuations in recycling of phosphorus ecological bistability also appears in the range of the recycling parameter r ＜ 0.5. Furthermore, we also analyze the effective potential under different parameters of non-Gaussian input noise and discuss the results of non-Gaussian noise-induced oligotrophication in detail. The above clues are beneficial to control regime shifts under the implications for the real lake eutrophication ecosystems.

關鍵字

Non-Gaussian noise ； Noise-enhanced stability ； Lake eutrophication ecosystem ； Phosphorus cycle

參考文獻

Zhang H, Liu X, Xu W. Threshold dynamics and pulse control of a stochastic ecosystem with switching parameters[J]. Journal of the Franklin Institute, 2021, 358(1): 516-532.

Duan W L. The stability analysis of tumor-immune responses to chemotherapy system driven by Gaussian colored noises[J]. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2020, 141: 110303.

Ma J, Xu Y, Kurths J, et al. Detecting early-warning signals in periodically forced systems with noise[J]. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2018, 28(11): 113601.

Carpenter S R, Ludwig D, Brock W A. Management of eutrophication for lakes subject to potentially irreversible change[J]. Ecological Applications, 1999, 9(3): 751-771.

May R M. Thresholds and breakpoints in ecosystems with a multiplicity of stable states[J]. Nature, 1977, 269(5628): 471-477.