土地利用改變與瞬時單位歷線關係之研究

本研究之目的為探討集水區在都市化演變歷程中土地利用改變與瞬時單位歷線之關係。有關流域逕流特性之分析，目前雖有若干方法可資應用，然尚未能完整地分析歷年之變化趨勢。本研究採用動差法與洗牌複演進參數優選法作爲研析方法之依據。文中採用概念化模式觀念，根據過去歷年來颱洪事件之記錄降雨與逕流資料，應用動差法計算歷年颱洪場次那徐模式之參數作為參數優選之起始值，再以洗牌複演進法求出相對於該年土地利用改變之模式參數值，藉以分析土地利用改變前後對研究集水區單位歷線之影響程度。應用迴歸分析探討五堵集水區近三十年來土地利用改變與瞬時單位歷線間之相互關係，並研析水文模式中有關參數隨著年代變化之因果關係。最後，推估因土地利用改變，集水區瞬時單位歷線之洪峰流量與洪峰到達時刻之變化趨勢。其研究結果可提供集水區經理之參考與應用。

關鍵字

土地利用改變；單位歷線；洗牌複演進法

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to explore the relationships of landuse change and instantaneous unit hydrograph in urban development process. Several methods were proposed and applied individually in the past to study runoff characteristics of a river basin; however, the trend of urban development for years has not yet been researched entirely. Moments method and shuffled complex evolution algorithm are thus adopted for the analysis of urbanization effect on watershed behavior in this study. In order to analyze the instantaneous unit hydrograph characteristics of the project river basin, Nash's conceptual model is hereby adopted. The results of the moments method are applied as the initial values of the hydrological model, and the shuffled complex evolution algorithm is then used to obtain the parameters of the Nash's model according to rainfall and runoff records of typhoon events in the past. The final outcomes of the shuffled complex evolution algorithm are applied for analyzing relationships between land use and instantaneous unit hydrograph, and the temporal change of the parameters of hydrological model are also investigated. Finally, variation trend of peak discharge and time to peak for instantaneous unit hydrographs and land-use change of during urbanization development period a project watershed can be estimated according to the parameters of the Nash's model. The analytical results achieved in this study can be applied for watershed management in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Land-use change ； Unit hydrograph ； Shuffled complex evolution algorithm

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