大理河流域土地利用與氣候變化對徑流、輸沙量的影響

Effects of Land Use and Climate Change on Runoff and Sediment Yield in Dali River Basin

韓蘆(LU HAN) ； 李鵬(PENG LI) ； 龔珺夫(JUN-FU GONG)

《台灣水利》 67卷1期 (2019/03) Pp. 103-112

摘要

本文基於SWAT模擬了大理河流域1991-2000年月均徑流、輸沙量，並對徑流、輸沙量與氣候、土地利用、林草措施之間的關系進行了定量分析。結果表明：（1）土地利用和氣候變化導致月均徑流、輸沙量分別減少了3.41 m^3/s、221.29萬噸。（2）以1995年土地利用為基礎，當流域15°和25°以上全為草地時，徑流分別減少12.42%、2.77%，輸沙量分別減少38.22%、10.60%，當流域15°和25°以上全為林地時，徑流分別減少27.05%、6.43%，輸沙量分別減少57.98%、17.52%。（3）降水量升高會導致流域徑流、輸沙量增加，氣溫升高也會導致徑流升高，但氣溫與輸沙量之間的一致性不確定。

關鍵字

SWAT模型 ； 土地利用變化 ； 氣候變化 ； 徑流

並列摘要

The monthly average runoff and sediment transport in Dali River Basin was simulated from 1991 to 2000 based on SWAT. The relationship between runoff, sediment transport and climate, land use, forest and grass measures was quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that: (1) Land use and climate change caused monthly average runoff decreased by 3.41 m^3/s and sediment transport decreased by 2212900 tons. (2) On the basis of land use in 1995, when more than 15° and 25° basin are full of grass land, runoff decreased by 12.42% and 2.77% respectively, and sediment decreased by 38.22% and 10.60% respectively; when more than 15° and 25° basin are full of forest land, runoff decreased by 27.05% and 6.43% respectively, and sediment decreased by respectively 57.98%, 17.52%; (3) The increase of precipitation will lead to the increase of runoff and sediment transport in the basin, and the increase of temperature will also lead to the increase of runoff; however, the consistency between temperature and sediment transport is uncertain.

並列關鍵字

SWAT model ； land use change ； climate change ； runoff