Accurately calculating the incipient condition of sediment motion has been a challenge in hydraulic engineering for decades. The standards used to describe the critical condition of sediment incipient motion is not uniform, and the corresponding relationships between the incipient parameters cannot be developed. Based on the randomness of particle positions and the characteristics of flow pulsation, a method for calculating the total probability of the sediment threshold is proposed by solving the rolling equation. A formula for incipient velocity based on probability theory being derived, with the experimental data showing that the formula has good applicability. Based on the total probability, the corresponding relations between incipient parameters such as the number of incipient particles, the threshold velocity, the threshold shear stress, the bed load transport rates, and the threshold probability, are established under the same state.