巨觀時空尺度下的氣候水資源挑戰

隨著氣候變遷的衝擊以及台灣主要降雨季節集中於每年5－6月之梅雨季節以及7－9月之颱風季節，豐水期與枯水期之降雨量與時空分佈存在顯著差異，若前一年梅雨以及颱風所夾帶的雨量不足時，乾旱現象將會發生甚至進而導致嚴重之缺水危機，如2021年所面臨半世紀以來最嚴重的旱災事件。從巨觀的時間尺度來看，氣候變遷或每年降雨季節整體雨量的些微改變皆可能會直接或間接地影響台灣面臨旱或澇之災害；而另一方面，從巨觀的空間尺度來看，例如聖嬰現象、太陽活動都可能對於地球整體的氣候水資源產生一定的衝擊。因此，為因應並了解極端降雨事件對於巨觀時間與空間尺度的水資源衝擊，本文透過文獻探討的方式，介紹了氣候變遷的水資源衝擊評估、宇宙環境、太陽黑子、聖嬰－南方震盪現象等大尺度之可能影響因子以及近年來相關文獻探討降雨與其關聯性，將能提供相關單位對於長時間尺度及大範圍空間尺度的水資源管理及規劃參考。

關鍵字

巨觀時空尺度；氣候水資源；氣候變遷；太陽黑子

並列摘要

With the impact of climate change and the main rainfall seasons in Taiwan are concentrated in the plum rain season from May to June and the typhoon season from July to September each year, there are significant differences in the rainfall and spatial and temporal distribution between the wet season and the dry season. When the rainfall carried by typhoons is insufficient, droughts will occur and even lead to serious water shortages, such as the worst drought event in half a century in 2021. From the macroscopic time scale, climate change or slight changes in the overall rainfall during the annual rainfall season may directly or indirectly affect Taiwan's drought or flood disaster; on the other hand, from the macroscopic spatial scale, for example, the El Nino phenomenon and solar activity may have a certain impact on the overall climate and water resources of the earth. Therefore, in order to respond to and understand the impact of extreme rainfall events on water resources on macroscopic time and space scales, this paper introduces the water resources impact assessment of climate change, the cosmic environment, sunspots, and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon through literature review. The possible influencing factors of other large scales and the related literature in recent years to discuss the relationship between rainfall and it will be able to provide information with a long-term and large-scale spatial-temporal scale water resources management and planning reference.

並列關鍵字

Macroscopic space-time scale ； Climate and water resources ； Climate change ； Sunspots

參考文獻

Chen, J., Li, T., Nan, Q., Shi, X., Liu, Y., Jiang, B., ... Li, C. 2019. Mid-late Holocene rainfall variation in Taiwan: A high-resolution multi-proxy record unravels the dual influence of the Asian monsoon and ENSO. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 516, 139-151. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2018.11.026

Gilmont, M., Hall, J.W., Grey, D., Dadson, S.J., Abele, S., & Simpson, M. 2018. Analysis of the relationship between rainfall and economic growth in Indian states. Global Environmental Change, 49, 56-72. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.01.003

Lee, J. H., Yang, C.-Y., & Julien, P.Y. 2020. Taiwanese rainfall variability associated with large-scale climate phenomena. Advances in Water Resources, 135, 103462. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.103462

Mason, S.J., Waylen, P.R., Mimmack, G.M., Rajaratnam, B., & Harrison, J.M. 1999. Changes in Extreme Rainfall Events in South Africa. Climatic Change, 41(2), 249-257. doi: 10.1023/A:1005450924499

Wang, L., Yang, Z., Gu, X., & Li, J. 2020. Linkages Between Tropical Cyclones and Extreme Precipitation over China and the Role of ENSO. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 11(4), 538-553. doi: 10.1007/s13753-020-00285-8

主題瀏覽