Geographic Detection, Trend Fitting, and Prediction of Land Ecological Security Pattern in Yan'an, Shaanxi Province

陝西省延安市土地生態安全格局地理檢測、趨勢擬合與預測

Xue Shang ； Wenbo Chen ； Zhaoquan He ； Tonghui Zhang

《台灣水利》 70卷4期 (2022/12) Pp. 57-73

https://doi.org/10.6937/TWC.202212_70(4).0005

摘要

Understanding the spatial-temporal variations of land ecological security (LES) in Yan'an is an essential precondition for regional land ecological preservation. The LES level was determined by utilizing the pressure-state-response (PSR) model and comprehensive index method, its response to the evaluating factors was investigated by using the geographical detector model, and its trend was fitted and predicted by Mann-Kendall (MK) test and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The following main findings emerged: (1) From 2000 to 2018, the LES gradually improved from south to north. The ecological security of Yan'an was substantially higher in the southeast and southwest, while the zone with medium and high ecological security expanded from south to north. (2) The effect of each evaluation index factor on land ecological security differed considerably. The most influential natural index factors were ecosystem service value (0.29) and ecological environment elasticity (0.30). Among the index factors of humanity (0.30), the artificial disturbance index and per capita land area (0.24) were the most influential. (3) The level of LES in each district and county exhibited a relatively stable status overall, each evaluation index factor had a significant interactive relationship with LES, which corresponded to a mutual and nonlinear enhancement. (4) The area of zones with high LES levels declined nonlinearly from 2000 to 2018 but stabilized dramatically between 2019 and 2023. In sum, the ecological security of Yan'an has improved overall, but it is necessary to further and continuously expand the region of high-level LES. Our study recommends that future emphasis should be placed on major indicators influencing LES to ensure better land ecological planning.

關鍵字

LES ； PSR model ； Yan'an ； Geographic detector model

參考文獻

Almeida, C.M., Batty, M., Monteiro, A.M.V., et al., “Stochastic cellular automata modeling of urban land use dynamics: empirical development and estimation,” Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, Vol. 27(5): 481-509, 2003.

Britz, W., Verburg, P.H., Leip, A., “Modelling of land cover and agricultural change in Europe: combining the clue and Capri-spat approaches,” Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, Vol.142(1-2): 40-50, 2011.

Babu, C.N., Sure, P., “Partitioning and interpolation based hybrid ARIMA–ANN model for time series forecasting,” Sādhanā, Vol.41(7): 695-706, 2016.

Bastien, T., Charles A., Sébastien L.D., et al., “Locally weighted regression models for surrogate-assisted design optimization,” Optimization and Engineering, Vol.19: 213-238, 2018.

Cameron, D.R., Marvin, D.C., Remucal, J.M., et al., “Ecosystem management and land conservation can substantially contribute to California’s climate mitigation goals,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol.114(48): 12833-12838, 2017.