- 學位論文
台灣花卉批發市場價格關連性-小菊花、火鶴、玫瑰和香水百合為例
Taiwan Flowers Wholesale Market Price Relationship- Cases for Chrysanthemum, Flamingo, Rose and Lily
摘要
臺北市政府以「彩花、流水、新視界」主軸，舉辦2010臺北國際花卉博覽會，展出了2706類、4538品種、2400多萬株的花卉與植栽，贏得了國內外嘉賓的一致好評。台灣得天獨厚擁有多樣化的氣候與環境，適合種植各式各樣的花卉，目前共有五個主要花卉批發市場，分別設立於台北、台中、彰化、台南、高雄。本研究依照花卉種植面積大小和交易數量多寡，選擇小菊花、火鶴、玫瑰及香水百合等四種花卉，利用行政院農業委員會農糧署之農產品交易行情站裡的花卉交易價格資料，研究空間和時間裡五個不同市場間的價格互動關係。樣本資料期間為2003年9月至2011年6月，以每旬平均交易價格為實證資料基礎，樣本數共5640個。 四種花卉之旬交易價格資料經過ADF單根檢定後，發現皆為定態時間序列，進一步運用VAR模型和Ravallion市場整合模型及Granger因果關係檢定，探討四種花卉在五個地區價格變化關連性是否符合中央與地方市場論述。本研究顯示無任何地區市場符合Ravallion市場整合理論，是故中央市場價格對地方市場價格影響最終並無法讓各地區價格趨於一致。 除玫瑰花較具消費市場需求拉動價格變化外，其餘三種花卉:小菊花、火鶴、香水百合皆是明顯由產地供給推動價格變化。台北花卉市場雖每日最早開市拍賣，但其交易價格系反應當日花卉品質和供需情況，實際影響價格主要因素仍是產地供給數量和品質。花卉價格有時會隨著某些節日到來的需求而上漲，例如農曆過年、西洋情人節、中元節，運用虛擬變數來探討價格的節日效應，分析不同節日對花卉價格的影響。
並列摘要
This article aims to study the price integration of four flowers (Chrysanthemum、Flamingo、Rose and Lily) in Taiwan’s five major flower wholesale market (Taipei、Taichung、Zhanghua、Tainan and Gaoxiong) through using the ten daily average auction price data from September 2003 to June 2011, total sample size of 5640.A cointegration test is used to examine the relationships of transaction prices, and the vector autoregression model (VAR) and Granger causality test are the means of analysis. Dummy variable is used to verify the holiday effect on flower prices. The major finding is as follows: The Revallion market integration theory prevents the prices from coming to the same level in the five flower wholesale markets. The flower price relationship in the five wholesale market is mostly driven by the place of origin for the flowers. For instance, even though the Taipei flower market is the major consumption market in Taiwan, consumption does not determine the market price. Instead the production quantity and quality in Zhanghua – the place of production for the flowers – determines the price. However, different holidays cause different flower price movements in the five flower wholesale market.