發放現金股利一定是好消息嗎？會計虧損、投資機會與財務體質的影響

Is Paying Dividend Always Good News? The Impacts of the Announcing Firm’s Earnings, Investment Opportunities, and Financial Health

陶富美(Sherry Tao)

指導教授 ： 陳業寧

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/財務金融學研究所/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201701267

摘要

在多數情況下發放現金股利能推升公司股價進而提高公司價值，國內外研究均不乏以實證結果說明現金股利的發放確實能帶來顯著異常報酬，只是在解釋其原因上有多種不同假說被提出，而各自也分別適用在不同的環境。本研究欲探討在哪些情況下發放現金股利對投資人來說不是好消息，進而對公司來說發放現金股利也不是其最好的選擇。本研究使用台灣上市櫃公司2006年至2015年一共十年的資料分別以兩個方法來做迴歸分析，主要分成三個面向來探討：盈餘、投資機會與公司財務體質。實證結果顯示，前一年度盈餘為負者發放現金股利不能帶來顯著異常報酬，然公司法在2012年進行修法，限制了負盈餘公司在彌補虧損、提列法定盈餘公積前不得發放現金股利，其後，負盈餘公司發放現金股利則可以帶來顯著異常報酬；另外，以Tobin's Q是否大於1來區分投資機會高低在累積異常報酬上沒有顯著差異；最後，財務體質差的公司其宣告效果也不能帶來顯著異常報酬。由以上結果可知投資人對公司的獲利狀況以及財務體質均相當關心，在選股投資時非單純考量公司是否有發放現金股利，而公司內部管理者在以股利作為傳遞訊息給外部投資人時，也需先考慮其自身營運狀況，方能避免未將公司資源做最有效率的運用。

關鍵字

現金股利 ； 累積異常報酬 ； 負盈餘 ； 投資機會 ； 公司財務體質

並列摘要

The positive association between cash dividend announcements and stock price movements has been documented in the literature. This thesis studies three conditions in which dividend announcements may not be good news for investors. Using the data of public traded firms in Taiwan from 2006 to 2015, it examines the impact of dividend yield on the cumulated abnormal returns (CARs) of dividend announcements. The thesis has four main empirical findings. First, the CARs of cash dividend announcements are significantly positive for firms with positive earnings, but are not significant for firms with negative earnings. Second, after the regulation forbidding firms with cumulative losses to distribute cash dividend is imposed, the CARs of dividend announcements become significantly positive for firms with negative earnings. Third, there is no significant difference in CAR of cash dividend announcements between firms with high investment opportunities and those with low investment opportunities. Finally, firms with worse financial conditions (liquidity, leverage, and volatility) have lower CARs of dividend announcements. To sum up, firms who plan to use cash dividend as a positive signal conveyed to outsiders should realize that not all dividend announcements are considered good news by investors.

並列關鍵字

Cash Dividend ； Cumulated Abnormal Return ； Negative Earnings ； Investment Opportunities ； Financial Condition

參考文獻

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