結合模擬與最佳化方法發展氣候變遷之永續性暴雨管理

Development of Sustainable Stormwater Management Using Simulation-Optimization Approach for Climate Adaptation

黃郁茹(Yu-Ru Huang)

指導教授 ： 童慶斌

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/生物環境系統工程學研究所/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201610084

摘要

現今全球許多地區因經濟發展正發生快速的都市化，都市化的過程使自然的土壤環境轉變為不透水的舖面，進而影響整體的生態環境及水文特性，再加上氣候變遷使得全球的水文循環過程發生改變，造成極端事件發生的強度及次數增加，尤其是短時間內的強降雨可能對水文環境不佳的都市化地區帶來更大的衝擊。本研究將著重於實現永續社區的排水管理，解決其洪災問題且達到永續發展目標，主要考慮雨水下水道系統及低衝擊開發(Low Impact Development, LID)並結合模擬與最佳化方法優選低衝擊開發設施之最佳化配置，並利用氣候變遷調適能力建構流程的六大步驟，擬定策略規劃與滾動式規劃，以發展氣候變遷下永續性的暴雨管理，提供政府未來規劃區域發展及建設的參考。
本研究區域在新竹縣湖口鄉，以SWMM模擬其現況及未來之水文狀況，評估未來可能增加的風險後，以不同配置比例的LID做為調適選項，再結合SWMM及模擬退火演算法優選設施的位置及種類，使其達到最低之尖峰流量。研究結果顯示因應未來氣候變遷下增加的尖峰流量，若要將尖峰流量削減至現況，5年重現期下需配置40~50%的LID，10年重現期則需配置50~70%，而在進行模擬與最佳化後皆只需要配置20%的LID即可達到相同的減洪效益。對於削減尖峰流量所配置LID的關鍵位置，優先配置於下游出口處的排水支線可得到較佳的效果，若同時有多條支線，配置於較短的支線可得到較佳的效果，配置LID關鍵位置的趨勢可依序由下游往上游支線延伸。

關鍵字

暴雨管理 ； 低衝擊開發 ； SWMM ； 最佳化 ； 氣候變遷 ； 調適

並列摘要

Presently,many areas are experiencing a very rapid process of urbanization, which transforms natural landscape into impervious land cover, affecting the ecosystem health of receiving water bodies. On the other hand, Climate change had altered the hydrological processes globally with result that the extreme events have an increase in both the magnitude and the frequency. In particular, the high intensity rainfall cause the severe flooding had significantly impacted on human life and property in urban area. This research develops a simulation-optimization framework that integrates simulated annealing algorithm(SA) with SWMM to design combined Low Impact Development (LID) and the drainage system.The type and location of LID are optimized for minimizing the alteration of peak flows.The aim is to apply the stormwater management in Sustainable Community, which can meet the sustainable development goal and tackle the urban runoff problem.Besides,using TaiCCAT Adaptation Support Tool explores the strategic planning and rolling wave planning to provide government an advice in developing sustainable stormwater management under uncertain conditions of climate change.
The case study is a community in Hsinchu in Taiwan, and the storm water management model (SWMM) is used to simulate the hydrologic flow regime under present and future climate scenarios. To mitigate the increasing risk caused by climate change in the future,the different level of LID are considered to be the adaptive strategies.The results indicate that the increase in peak flow under future scenarios can be reduced with area of 40%~50% LID cover for 5-year return period event and with area of 50%~70% LID cover for 10-year return period event. However, area of 20% LID cover can achieve the same effectiveness for a spectrum of design storms after the placement of LID are optimized. Moreover, concentrating LID priorly at the downstream location of drainage system have the minimal peak flow.And choosing the shorter drain pipe can be better. Overall, the priority of the location of LID is from the downstream to upstream of drainage system, and the trend can have the minimal peak flow.

並列關鍵字

Stormwater Management ； Low Impact Development ； SWMM ； Optimization ； Climate Change ； Adaption

參考文獻

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