台灣高速鐵路之財務風險分析

The Financial Risk Analysis of Taiwan High Speed Rail

林國政(Kuo-cheng Lin)

指導教授 ： 劉啟群

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/會計學研究所/碩士(2006年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2006.10024

摘要

台灣高速鐵路的營建為目前世界上金額最大的BOT案，由政府授權予台灣高鐵公司35年的特許興建及營運期。本研究即以此背景，藉由前人對台灣高鐵所做的研究瞭解與高速鐵路相關的概念及風險種類，並藉由在國外已營運多年之成功高速鐵路的財務分析，與台灣高鐵之情況做比較，進而分析其未來所可能遭遇的風險。
本研究之主要結果彙整敘述如下：
1. 台灣高鐵的銷售數量風險程度為中等，其所服務的多為中長程旅次的乘客，公司估算運量通車營運第一年每天約14.8萬人次，短中程的乘客則易選擇客運或台鐵等替代運具。
2. 銷售價格風險程度也屬中等，依據3.459元/人公里為基本費率標準，北高直達車票價約1,299元，介於飛機票價及台鐵票價之間。這對往來北高、習慣搭乘客運或台鐵的民眾會帶來票價昂貴的印象。
3. 台灣高鐵的生產變動成本風險則偏高，高鐵屬於勞力相當密集的產業，而其所帶來的人事成本費用也相對來得多。
4. 台灣高鐵的營運槓桿風險屬於極大的風險，因為軌道運輸具有固定成本高、成本沈沒且自然獨占等等特性，台灣高鐵為世界最大之BOT案，投資金額龐大。
5. 同樣地，台灣高鐵的財務槓桿風險也相當大，高鐵五大站區的事業開發，前五年都處於投資期，無法增加營收，每天光靠票箱收入，不但要攤平固定管銷成本，又要償還數千億元的借款與利息，台灣高鐵所背負的財務壓力相當沉重。

關鍵字

台灣高速鐵路 ； BOT（興建、營運、移轉） ； 銷售數量風險 ； 銷售價格風險 ； 生產變動成本風險 ； 營運槓桿風險 ； 財務槓桿風險

並列摘要

The construction of Taiwan High Speed Rail is the biggest Building -Operation-Transfer case in the world. The Taiwanese government has granted the Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation a 35-year period of construction and operation. The research project is based on former studies concerning Taiwan High Speed Rail and risks of high speed rail, and compares the current situation of Taiwan High Speed Rail with the operational results of foreign high speed rail companies and analyzes all the potential risks Taiwan High Speed Rail may encounter in the future.
The research findings are as follows:
1. The sales quantity risk level of Taiwan High Speed Rail is medium. Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation estimates the number of passengers in the first year of operation is around 148,000. Passengers traveling shorter distances tend to choose other methods of transportation.
2. The sales price risk level is also medium. According to the basic rate of 3.459 NT dollars per passenger-kilometer, the ticket price of a Taiwan High Speed Rail direct ride from Taipei to Kaohsiung approximates NT 1,299, which is between the price of going by plane and by train. To passengers who are used to take a coach or train this will give the impression that the price of Taiwan High Speed Rail is high.
3. However, the production variable cost risk level is higher. Taiwan High Speed Rail belongs to the highly labor-dense industry, so the salary expenses will be high.
4. On the other hand, the operating leverage risk level of Taiwan High Speed Rail is extremely high because High Speed Rail has high fixed cost and high sunk cost.
5. Likewise, the financial leverage risk level is also extremely high. Taiwan High Speed Rail has to pay back huge loans and interest and has difficulty increasing the revenue at the very beginning of operation. Therefore, the financial burden is quite heavy.

並列關鍵字

Taiwan High Speed Rail ； Building-Operation-Transfer ； Sales Quantity Risk ； Sales Price Risk ； Production Variable Cost Risk ； Operating Leverage Risk ； Financial Leverage Risk

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