- 學位論文
保單貼現證券於金融風暴下之競爭力分析
Competitiveness Analysis of Life Settlement Security under Financial Crisis
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摘要
保單貼現的出現，打破了壽險公司長久以來在壽險保單次級市場的壟斷地位。藉由保單貼現，被保險人可以得到高於解約金的價值，用以解決資金需求或從事新的財務規劃，保單收購公司由買賣保單之間賺取佣金，投資人也可獲得投資金額與死亡理賠間的差額，可謂創造了三贏的局面。然而，市場上的投資人對於此商品是相當陌生的，不清楚商品的結構，也不了解投資此商品的報酬分佈與風險為何。因此本文首先對保單貼現商品之歷史背景與商品結構做一完整的說明，再來針對各項評價因素對保單貼現參與者的收支影響做一分析，使得投資人可以進一步了解保單貼現的被保險人之年齡、保單保費、生命預期及保單收購公司的折現率是如何影響保單貼現商品。分析結果發現，生命預期為影響各參與者收支最大的因素，而保單保費及折現率也有一定的影響力，被保險人的年齡則影響相當的小。本文並以2003~2008 年與2003~2006 年為研究期間，將投資人較熟悉的幾項投資工具與保單貼現商品做一比較，以分析保單貼現的競爭力何在。分析結果發現，若以2003~2006 年為期間，保單貼現商品與一般投資工具的報酬率相差不多，標準差則略高；而若以2003~2008 年為期間，則由於保單貼現不受景氣循環影響的特性，保單貼現的報酬率會高於各項投資工具，並且標準差也較小，因此可以得到保單貼現商品有其投資競爭力的結論。本文最後再假設不同的生命預期情境，以觀察單一保單貼現與保單貼現群組的報酬率是如何的被影響。結果可以發現，生命預期確實影響報酬率相當大，但儘管是比原本估計的生命預期高出了24 個月的情境，兩者的報酬率依然在10%以上，並不算太低。
並列摘要
The emergence of life settlement has broken the long-existed monopoly status of life insurance companies in the secondary market for life insurance policies. Through a life settlement transaction, the insured could sell his policy for an amount greater than the surrender value of the policy and then use the money to satisfy the liquidity needs or to fund new financial plans In such transactions, the settlement provider could charge a commission on the deal, and the investor could get the difference between the face amount of the policy and settlement amount. All participants will benefit from the deal. However,investors may be unfamiliar with this kind of product. They do not know the product structure and where the return and risks come from. This thesis begins by introducing the background of the product and the product structure. Next, the thesis investigates how the various factors impact settlement prices. The result shows that life expectancy plays a critical role on the valuation of life settlements. Policy premium and discount rate can also influence the price. On the other hand, age of the insured has nearly no effects on the price. This thesis also compares life settlements with some other investments for understanding the competitiveness of life settlement. The result shows that life settlement indeed is competitive because its return is not affected by business cycles. Finally, this thesis analyzes how life expectancy affects the returns of life settlements.
參考文獻
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