臺灣總體計量模型之經濟情勢與政策探討

The Economic Prospects and Policy Evaluation of Taiwan Economy

陳彼得(Pei-Te Chen)

指導教授 ： 林建甫

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2009年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2009.10090

摘要

本文主要的研究目的為建立臺灣總體計量模型，並藉由模型分析中國大陸GDP成長率、新臺幣兌美元匯率及央行貨幣政策對於總體經濟所產生的影響。依據臺灣目前現狀，分別考量在不同情境下的評估與分析：(1)中國大陸GDP成長率：根據國際貿易局的統計，臺灣對於中國大陸的出口占其總出口額的30%，這樣的現象意味著臺灣在國際貿易上對於中國大陸的高依存程度。2008下半年以來全球經濟情勢受到金融海嘯的影響，在全球國際貿易的萎縮下，中國大陸經濟成長率的未來表現將連帶影響臺灣的總體經濟情勢。(2)臺幣兌美元匯率：2009年以來新臺幣的匯率約在33至35元的區間震盪，由於臺灣本身屬於小型的開放經濟體系，匯率變動將對於臺灣總體經濟產生重大影響。本文中對於未來匯率情勢進行模擬，藉此來探討其對臺灣總體經濟所造成之長短期的影響。(3) 央行貨幣政策：在央行採取逐次調整重貼現率的情況下進行分析。當央行所採取逐次調升利率時，對於總體經濟具有的負面的影響，但對物價具有抑制的效果。相反地，在逐次調降利率的過程中，雖對總體經濟有正面之助益，但同時也加深了物價膨脹的壓力。

關鍵字

總體計量模型 ； 情境模擬 ； 聯立方程式系統

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to construct Taiwan's macroeconometric model and to use the model analyzing the effects of the GDP of China, the exchange rate, the monetary policy on macroeconomy. According to the economic situation in Taiwan, this study assumes three different scenarios to analyze them separately.
(1) Growth of GDP in China: According to the statistics of Bureau of Foreign Trade, the export to China accounts for 30% of the total exprt of Taiwan. This phenomenon implies that the high dependence on China of the international trade of Tawian. From the end of 2008, the global economic situation was impacted by the financial tsunami and the internal trade slumped. Hence, the economic growth rate of China will affect the macroeconmy of Taiwan.
(2) Exchange rate: The exchange rate of the NT dollar has been moving up and down between 33 and 35 NT dollars since 2009. Because Taiwan belongs to a small open economic system, the variability of the exchange rate would result in an enormous effect. In this thesis, we analyze and research the short-term and long-term impacts by using the model to simulatethe trend.
(3) Monetary policy: We analyze the economy under the scenario of the central bank adjusting the discount rate gradually. As the discount rate increases, it could result in a negative impact on the economy but lower the price effectively. In contrast, lowering the rate could improve the economy but impose stress on the price.

並列關鍵字

Macroeconomic model ； Scenario simultaion

參考文獻

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