壽險業不動產投資與房價指數關聯性之研究

The Relationship between the Real Estate Investment of Life Insurance Companies and the Housing Prices

潘香羽(Shiang-Yu Pan)

指導教授 ： 李顯峰

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201904188

摘要

相較於其他先進國家，我國壽險業在房地產市場扮演更為重要的角色。近年壽險業在不動產市場投資，屢創天價的交易金額常被媒體大肆報導，也被質疑是造成臺灣房價普遍被認為偏離合理價值的因素之一。然而，一般認為壽險業在不動產市場的主要投資標的應係商辦大樓，究竟壽險業在不動產市場的投資是否會對國人的成屋交易市場有影響？為本文欲探討之核心議題。
本文之迴歸分析以國泰房地產可能成交價指數與信義房價指數為研究樣本，探討2001年第1季至2018年第4季期間，總體經濟變數及壽險業在不動產市場之投資對於房價變化的解釋能力。實證結果顯示，前一期壽險業不動產投資之變化對於當期中古屋房價有顯著的正向預測能力。至於其他總體經濟變數而言，實證結果顯示失業率對於房價指數有顯著負向影響；此外，相較於預售屋與新成屋市場，中古屋市場受到總體經濟變數影響的層面較為顯著，且實證結果符合一般經濟理論，即購屋貸款利率與股價指數對於房價有正向影響，失業率則為負向關係。末以稅制效果觀之，相較於奢侈稅政策，房地合一稅制對於抑制房價皆有較強的政策效果。

關鍵字

壽險業 ； 房價 ； 總體經濟

並列摘要

Compared with other developed countries, our life insurance industry plays a more important role in real estate market. The high investment amount from life insurance industry has been questioned as one of the factors that cause Taiwan's housing prices to be generally considered to deviate from reasonable value. However, it is believed that the main investment target of the life insurance industry in the real estate market should be the commercial building. Therefore, we are interested to understand whether the real estate investment of life insurance industry leads to an effect on housing prices.
Under the framework of regression analysis, this thesis adopts 2 housing price index, Cathay Real Estate Index and SINYI House Price Index, ranged from 2001 to 2018. We also study the effect of macroeconomic variables on housing prices. The evidence points out that the previous changes in the real estate investment of the life insurance industry have a significant positive predictive ability for the existing house price. As for other macroeconomic variables, the empirical results show that the unemployment rate has a significant negative impact on the housing prices; in addition, compared with the pre-sale house, the existing house price is more affected by the overall macroeconomic factors. Within the framework of regression analysis, the results show that the luxury tax has no negative effect on housing prices, as expected by the government.

並列關鍵字

life insurance industry ； house prices ； macroeconomic variables

參考文獻

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Full Life Insurers FactBook. (2018). AMERICAN COUNCIL OF LIFE INSURERS.

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