- 學位論文
口碑效果的動態性－以美國電影為例
The Dynamic Effect of Word of Mouth－Take American Movies as Examples
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摘要
這是一個快速經濟的時代，現在的消費者口味多變，企業為了迎合消費者，往往不斷的推出新產品。同時，在這資訊極為流通的時代，消費者無時不接受到「口碑」及「網路口碑」的訊息，也因此左右了消費者的消費決定。而電影等娛樂產業的產品，與一般的耐久財相較，更具有快速變遷、生命週期短且不確定性高的特性。因此對電影出版者而言，希望有一套完整的預測模式來預測電影的銷售量。而過去研究探討的口碑效果對電影票房的影響，多著重於口碑效果對於整體票房的影響力，極少探討到口碑的動態性效果。 本研究以美國IMDB網站(www.imdb.com)為資料的來源，蒐集2006年在美國上映的電影中，總票房最高的前30名電影的上映資料為研究對象，並且蒐集這30部電影的各週的消費者評分、消費者評分人數及其他電影的基本資料。而研究分析模式的主要分析方法為Bass 擴散模式及線性迴歸模式。其中Bass 擴散模式更包含了Bass 擴散模式的原型和修正過後的Bass 擴散模式，其中修正過後的Bass 擴散模式是將模仿係數q做不同的設定。線性迴歸模式則是分別以每週各電影資料的自變數的組合，以應變數為當週票房boxofficet跑線性迴歸，也以應變數為當週票房與上週票房的變化率 跑線性迴歸。 在兩種主要模式的分析之下，研究電影的口碑效果是否的確具有動態性影響，並且探討哪些自變數會影響到當週票房及票房變化率，有哪些自變數會造成正向且顯著的影響？針對研究結果提出行銷意涵，期望對企業有所貢獻，也對後續研究有所助益。
並列摘要
We live in a generation of fast economy and the tastes of the consumer are highly changeable. All enterprises want to catch the appetite of the consumers, giving them the best and the most suitable product. Meanwhile, in the generation that the information circulate so fast, consumers’ decisions are affected by the “word-of-mouth” and “word-of-mouse”. Movie and the entertainment industry are especially affected by these information flows. Comparing with the durable goods, entertainment industry provides the products with the characteristics of changing speedy and short product life cycle. Therefore, the movie publishers are willing to know what the consumers really want and what really have impact on their choice. The database of this research is American website: IMDB (www.imdb.com). I collected the top 30 selling movies in America during the year 2006 and the information and critics of the movies on the website for research purpose. The research models are Bass Diffusion model and linear regression. Among the Bass Diffusion model, there are the prototype and the revise type of it. The revise model changes the imitation factor q. And the linear regression is the combinations of the movie independent variable with the box office on the current week and the variation rate of movie box office. Under these models, the research examines whether there’s a movement of movie word-of-mouse, and what kinds of independent variable will have the positive effect on the box office on the current week and the variation rate of movie box office. In light of the research results, hoping to find out the marketing meaning of the movie industry and also having contribution to the further research.
參考文獻
5. 錢欣樺，＂網路口耳相傳訊息與企業回應策略對消費者態度之影響－以購物網站為例＂，國立台灣大學，民國九十五年六月。
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