臺灣民眾對美國安全承諾的信任變遷研究
～2018-2020三波調查的分析

在川普政府上任後，臺美關係不斷地升溫，除了影響臺灣與美國之間的關係外，更可以了解臺灣民眾對於美國安全承諾的信任感以及感受。本文為瞭解臺灣民眾對於美國安全承諾下對美國的政治信任，以國立臺灣大學社會科學院中國大陸研究中心分別於2018年、2019年、2020年，所進行之四波調查為時序進行分析。本文透過調查、理論回顧與文獻探討，並利用「多項勝算對數迴歸分析」（multinomial logit regression analysis）解讀臺灣民眾之人口學變數（性別、年齡、教育程度、籍貫）、政治學變數（國族認同、國家認同、政黨認同、常收看新聞臺立場）、兩岸關係變數（兩岸關係評價、對中共領導人信任感、統獨抉擇）等因素對臺灣民眾對於美國安全承諾信任有何差異性及其原因，研究發現： 1. 臺灣民眾對於美國的安全承諾信任逐年增加，到了2020年高信任度已上升至22.3%，低信任度則是從2018年的31.3%降至2020年的26%左右。 2. 人口學變數方面僅有幾個因素達到顯著，性別中的男性以及教育程度中的高中（職）達到顯著水準，其餘均未達顯著水準。政治學變數的部分只有收看淺綠電視臺一項沒有達到顯著，其餘均有達顯著水準。兩岸關係變數方面除臺灣獨立這個因素沒有達到顯著水準外，其餘均有達顯著水準。

關鍵字

臺灣；美國；中國；臺美關係；政治信任；川普政府

並列摘要

Taiwan-United States relations has been being intensified since the Trump Administration took office. Taiwanese’ perception and trust in the security commitments of the United States can not only have effect upon the relationship between Taiwan and the United States, but be taken as a significant reference model of Taiwan public’s concept of the unification, independence or pro-China. To comprehend Taiwanese’ political trust in the security commitments of the United States, four surveys conducted by Center of China Studies in College of Social Sciences of National Taiwan University in 2018, 2019 and 2020 were analyzed in time sequence in the study. In addition to the investigation on relevant surveys, theory reviews and literature reviews, “multinomial logit regression analysis” is also adopted in the study to interpret how demographic variables （gender, age, education level ,hometown）, political variables （national identity, party identification, position of news media often watched）, cross-strait variables （evaluation of cross-strait relations, trust of CCP leader, choice of unification or independence） result in the different perceptions of Taiwanese toward the security commitments of the United States. The research reveals the following findings: 1. Taiwanese’s trust in the security commitments of the United States increased year by year. In this regard, the high confidence level has risen to twenty-two percent in 2020 while the low confidence level has declined from thirty-one percent （2018） to about twenty-six percent in 2020. 2. Except gender （male） and education level （senior high school and vocational high school）, the rest of the factors of demographic variables did not reach the significant level. Regarding the political variables, watching light green news media is the only factor that did not reach significant level, the rest of the factors were at significant level. In the aspect of cross-strait relations variables, except Taiwan independence, the rest of the factors were at significant level.