近年來「加劇的政治極化」(Intensifying political polarization)似乎越來越成為民主治理的威脅,新型態的「情感極化」(affective polarization)也取代了過往傳統的政治極化,成為學界討論的新課題。隨著美國情感極化的加劇,「負面黨性」(negative partisanship)現象也伴隨出現,不少學者認為負面黨性正是川普(Donald Trump)能在2016年總統大選打敗柯林頓(Hillary Clinton)的關鍵。 本文以臺灣作為分析案例,來檢視在情感極化下,負面黨性的發展以及其對於臺灣總統選舉的影響。透過「臺灣選舉與民主化調查」(TEDS)2004到2020年五波的全國性調查資料,本文發現臺灣的情感極化程度在2012年以後顯著提高,反映了近來臺灣政治對立加劇的情形,與此同時,臺灣負面黨性選民的比例也顯著增加,在2020年總統大選中,已有接近4成的臺灣民眾具有對於國、民兩大黨的負面黨性。在過去研究中,相較於政黨認同,負面黨性極少被納入討論。然而,透過五屆總統大選的實證結果,本文發現這種對於政黨的強烈厭惡與不認同,確實對於選民的投票行為有著獨特的影響力。本文認為,負面黨性這種「討厭的力量」,不僅足以影響選舉結果,也成為臺灣民主政治發展中不可忽視的關鍵因素。
In recent years, intensifying political polarization seems to be increasingly becoming a threat to democracy. “Affective polarization”, a new type of polarization, has also replaced the traditional polarization recently and has become a popular topic in academic discussion. At the same time, the phenomenon of “negative partisanship” has also emerged in the United States. Many scholars argue that negative partisanship explained why Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. In this article, we try to find out the development of affective polarization and negative partisanship in Taiwan. Moreover, this research also examines the influence of negative partisanship on Taiwanese presidential election. Based on the five-wave national survey data (TEDS) from 2004 to 2020, we noticed that the level of affective polarization in Taiwan has upgraded significantly after 2012. Meanwhile, the proportion of voters with negative partisanship has also increased evidently. In the 2020 presidential election, nearly 40% people in Taiwan have negative partisanship towards one of the two major parties, KMT or DPP. In the past, negative partisanship was rarely discussed in electoral studies. However, this article shows that the strong dislike or disapproval towards political parties does have a unique impact on voting behavior. In conclusion, this article highlights the autonomous power of negative partisanship. We consider that negative partisanship is not only sufficient to affect the election results, but also a key factor that cannot be ignored in the development of Taiwan’s democracy.