從兩岸票房收益比較分析
探討兒童舞台劇之經營發展策略

在全球化的浪潮下，縮短了國與國之間的距離，形成無界域的空間，促使各國之間的往來更加的密切與頻繁，而其資訊的流通與文化的交流也更為即時。全球化環境的變動帶來了國內藝文團體的市場隱憂，相對地擠壓其生存空間，迫使國內表演團體為求存續，不斷地進行華文市場的開發及拓展。文化部或各縣市地方政府，均以中央及地方的力量積極推動文化相關活動，並以實際的資金提供，以獎勵及補助的方式，如民國94年所提出「文化部補助藝文團體出國及赴大陸地區從事文化交流活動處理要點」與民國97年制定「文化部演藝團隊分級獎助計畫作業要點」…等等，皆以文化行政之力量及補助的方式積極、鼓勵並加以扶植台灣藝文團體，其目的莫不著眼於：希望藉由促進各類表演藝術發展的條文及作業辦法，以政府的力量輔導、推動，促使國內表演藝術得以長期且穩定發展，同時活絡臺灣與國際間交流互動並與國際文化網絡接軌；以作為國內藝文團體存續之基礎及參與國際性文化交流活動之媒合平台。然而總體消費市場的內需下降迫使藝文團體不斷地尋求向外發展的機會，其中尤以兒童舞台劇為甚，台灣逐年下降的出生率與大陸正開放的單獨二胎政策，在新生兒的人數上形成了強烈的反差，預估5年內大陸的新生兒將多出800萬人，而台灣恐將持續負成長，這些因素都將誘使以舞台劇為主的兒童劇團轉移大陸發展；雖然大陸擁有極大的內需市場，但卻也隱含著市場及政府審批制度的風險與不確定性。本研究以臺灣與大陸的兒童舞台劇案例，分析兩岸兒童舞台劇票房之收益，並探討以兒童戲劇為核心，可在兩岸兒童市場發展出多少可能的收益與經營藍圖？因此，本研究將藉由文獻探討、初級與次級資料的蒐集、探索性資料分析與回歸分析等方式，綜合歸納後提出研究之成果與結論建議，希望能透過以兒童戲劇為核心及其收益藍圖發展作為未來有興趣探討者參考的方向。

關鍵字

兒童戲劇；兒童舞台劇；票房收益與票價預測

並列摘要

In the wave of globalization, the distance between nations are shortened, forming a space with boundless domains, prompted a close and frequent interaction between each nation, therefore, the circulation of information and the exchange of cultures are more immediate. The changes caused by globalization brought worries to domestic art performing groups. In contrast, it is causing the survival space to decrease, forcing the domestic art performing groups to develop and expand constantly in the Chinese market, in order to continue to survive. The Ministry of Culture and the local governments are actively promoting by the means of rewarding and subsidizing. For example, “ The Principle of the Ministry of Culture Subsidizing Art Groups Going Abroad and Engage in Cultural Exchange Activities in Mainland China’’, which was proposed in 2005; and “ The Point Operations of the Scholarship Program of the Ministry of Culture for Art Performing Groups”, which was proposed in 2008…etc. Using the power of government administration to give subsidies, support and encourage the art performing groups actively, Its purpose is to force the government to promote counseling and provision of various types of performing arts development and operations for ways to make domestic long-term and stable Performing Arts Development. Meanwhile, to keep the interaction between Taiwan and the other nations active, and keep up the standard of the international cultural network; to act as the foundation for the domestic art groups to subsist, and the matching platform for participating international cultural exchange activities. However, the overall decline in the domestic consumer market is forcing art performing groups to seek continuously for opportunities to develop more outside, especially in the children’s theatre. Year after year, the birth rate of Taiwan is in decline, and Mainland China is open with the Selective Two-Child Policy, the number of newborns form a strong contrast. Estimations of more than 8 million more newborns in Mainland China in 5 years, and Taiwan will continue with their negative growth, these factors will lure theatre-based children’s theatre troupes to transfer their development to Mainland China; even though Mainland China has a great domestic market, but it also implies different risks and uncertainties of the market and government approval system. In this study, it will be the preliminary study according to the box office revenue of the children’s theatre in Taiwan and Mainland China, by using the case of children’s theatre and to explore and discuss the box revenues of the children’s theatre of Taiwan and Mainland China, forecast the revenue, also view the children’s theatre as the core, how many possible revenues and operating blueprints can be developed in the children’s market? Therefore, this study will be using literature reviews, primary and secondary data collection, exploratory data analysis and regression analysis...etc., propose summarized recommendations and conclusions after a comprehensive induction, hoping to use the children’s theatre as core and the development blueprint of income as a reference direction in the future for those who are interested.