觀光創造性破壞模型之精簡指標系統--以淡水為例

New Indicators of Refining Tourism Creative Destruction Model -A Empirical Case Study in Tan-shui

吳昀熹(Yun-Xi Wu)

指導教授 ： 朱子豪

國立臺灣大學/理學院/地理環境資源學研究所/碩士(2018年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201800496

摘要

觀光演化研究是觀光研究的一條重要研究脈絡，側重討論觀光發展過程的週期性規律，以及整個週期中的產業及社會結構的轉變。而目前的觀光演化研究主要採取質性研究方法，無法很好地對歷史數據資料進行整合分析，存在演化階段劃分原則不明，關鍵因子發展規律模糊的弊端。因此本研究旨在建立一套可以清楚描述觀光發展進程中階段劃分及各階段特徵的預測指標，用以幫助旅遊地更清楚地認識其觀光發展所處階段和其中特徵。
本研究以地理學者Mitchell的六階段創造性破壞模型為理論基礎，通過分析用該理論進行觀光研究的所有前人研究之成果，整理其中關注的議題和可能存在的邏輯聯繫，以前人研究共同關注的三個面向作為指標建立的依據，具體包括：旅遊規模、商業結構和用地變遷，以旅遊規模中的遊客量年變規律曲線作為階段劃分的依據。為驗證預測指標和階段劃分依據的合理性，選取兼具歷史文化遺跡與現代休閒濱海景觀，且觀光化特徵明顯的「淡水老街」為實證研究區域。先藉由對研究區內的遊客增長曲線變化情況的梳理，設定淡水的觀光演化階段；再接著通過對工商登記資料的統計分析了解研究區內的商業結構變化；並運用地理資訊系統的相關空間分析工具對用地類型及面積進行分析，以掌握不同時期的景觀空間格局變化特徵和面積變化程度。
研究結果表明，預測指標所描繪的特徵和變化範圍推估與研究區的觀光發展脈絡所呈現的態勢大部分吻合，因此可以判斷預測指標可以被用來描繪研究區的旅遊變化情況。此研究之成果可填補前人研究對旅遊演化階段劃分及各階段內相關面向特徵之發展狀況敘述模糊之處。

關鍵字

觀光演化 ； 創造性破壞 ； GIS ； 濱海旅遊地

並列摘要

Tourism evolution is a significant branch of tourism study that focuses on the summary of trends in tourism evolution and corresponding phenomena. With the development of society and the tourism industry, some classical theories have become unsuitable, due to isolation comprehension of each factor and the unclear criteria of stage partitions. Consequently, finding more appropriate analytical tools has become a rising concern.
Mitchell put forward the thesis of creative destruction in tourism-a model based on Schumpeter's creative destruction theory and Lefebvre's thoughts regarding the production of space. Mitchell's model focused on the inherent connection between human activities and their results-namely changes to landscape and commercial structures-which was more progressive than other classical theories. However, both the criteria of stage partitions and characteristics of each stage remain unclear.
To clarify the potential linkages between fragmented phenomena and discern potential stage partition criteria, this study constructed predictive indicators based on the results of previous research that applied Mitchell's model as a dominant framework, and which recorded fragmented phenomena in different fields-such as tourist growth rate and commercial agglomeration. This study also proves the rationality and applicability of predictive indicators through an empirical investigation of the research area, Tan-Shui; a famous coastal tourism destination in Taiwan, which is facing the risk of over-commercialization due to the overdevelopment of tourism.
By collecting and analyzing social statistics and land cover aerial photographs, this study clarifies the potential criteria of the stage partition of the tourism evolution process in Tan-Shui, as well as the corresponding characteristic of each stage. The rationality and applicability of predictive indicators are also proved.

並列關鍵字

tourism evolution ； creative destruction ； GIS ； coastal tourism destination

參考文獻

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