- 學位論文
政府政策、內生生育率與經濟成長
Government Policies, Endogenous Fertility, and Economic Growth
摘要
世界各國歷經明顯的人口結構變遷已是不爭的事實，其中生育率的變化被視為一個重要影響因素。實證研究或理論研究也顯示，生育率行為在經濟成長文獻中扮演著重要的角色。然而，有關內生生育率在總體政策效果中有何影響力，以及政府如何透過政策對抗低生育率的理論文獻仍相對缺乏。據此，本論文的目的在於，探究補貼政策、貨幣政策以及租稅改革政策對於總體經濟變數的長期影響。 首先，在第二章中，我們建構一個具不同政府融通方式特色的實質內生成長模型，藉以探討補貼政策的實是面與規範面分析。結果發現，政府融通方式為補貼政策有效性的關鍵因素。當政府施行定額稅融通時，補貼率的提高對生育率有不確定的影響、對經濟成長率有正向的效果，並對社會福利有不確定的影響。其次，當政府施行所得稅融通時，補貼率的提高將鼓勵生育率而傷害經濟成長率，並降低社會福利。而當政府施行消費稅融通時，補貼率的提高將激勵生育率、卻對經濟成長率沒有影響，並降低社會福利。此外，本文得到，政府應將最適補貼率應設定為零。 在第三章中，我們建立一個具內生生育率特色的貨幣內生成長模型，試圖進行貨幣政策與補貼政策的實是面與規範面分析。結果發現，在貨幣進入效用函數的模型裡，內生生育率的存在與否，為決定貨幣政策有效性與最適貨幣政策之關鍵因素。當內生生育率存在時，貨幣成長率的增加將提高生育率、降低經濟成長率，並對社會福利有不確定的影響，而最適貨幣政策是將名目利率設定在不為零的情況。此外，補貼率的提高對生育率有不確定的影響、對經濟成長率有正向的效果，並對社會福利有不確定的影響，而最適補貼政策是將補貼率設定在不為零的情況。 在第四章中，我們建構一個具內生生育率特色之小型開放內生成長模型，據以探討租稅改革政策效果。我們不只關注租稅改革如何改變長期經濟成長率，也關注租稅改革政策是否可對抗生育率低落的問題，同時也探討最適財政政策為何。在以消費稅替代工資所得稅的租稅改革裡，該政策對於生育率、經濟成長率皆不具影響。其次，在以消費稅替代資本所得稅的租稅改革裡，該政策將促進生育率、並抑制經濟成長率。而在以消費稅替代國外債券利息所得稅裡，該政策將降低生育率、並鼓勵經濟成長率。最後，在小型開放的內生成長模型中，是否存在最佳財政政策端視處於哪種體系而定。
並列摘要
It is increasingly apparent that most countries in the world have undergone obvious demographic transitions, of which changes in fertility are one of the important causes. Existing empirical or theoretical studies also reveal that fertility behavior plays a significant role in the literature on endogenous growth. However, there is still relatively little theoretical literature analyzing the role of endogenous fertility in evaluating the effects of macroeconomic policies and analyzing how the government can combat reduced fertility via policies. As a consequence, the purpose of this dissertation is to explore the long-run effects of a subsidy policy, monetary policy, and tax reform policy on macroeconomic variables. Chapter 2 develops a real endogenous growth model characterized by different government financing methods and studies the positive and normative analyses of a subsidy policy. We show that a government’s financing method has major consequences for the effectiveness of a subsidy policy. A rise in the subsidy rate financed by a lump-sum tax affects fertility ambiguously, has a positive effect on the balanced growth rate, and impacts social welfare ambiguously. A rise in the subsidy rate financed by an income tax boosts fertility, depresses the long-run growth rate, and dampens social welfare. When financing is obtained from a consumption tax, a rise in the subsidy rate enhances fertility, has no effect on economic growth, and depresses social welfare. We also find that the optimal subsidy rate should be set at zero. Chapter 3 builds a monetary endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility and performs the positive and normative analyses of monetary and subsidy policies. We find that, in the money-in-the-utility-function framework, endogenous fertility crucially governs whether the neutrality of monetary policy exists and whether the optimal monetary policy obeys the Friedman’s rule. When endogenous fertility is present, a rise in the money growth rate raises fertility, reduces the economic growth rate, and has an ambiguous effect on social welfare. The welfare–maximizing monetary policy does not follow the Friedman’s rule. In addition, a rise in the subsidy rate affects fertility ambiguously, has a positive effect on the balanced growth rate, and affects social welfare ambiguously. The optimal subsidy rate should be set at a non-zero value. Chapter 4 establishes a small open endogenous growth model with the presence of endogenous fertility and examines the effects of tax reform policies. We focus on not only how tax reforms alter the long-run growth rate, but also whether or not tax reforms policies can combat a decline in fertility. We also derive the optimal fiscal policies. Specifically, a reduction in the wage income tax with a revenue-neutral rise in a consumption tax leaves fertility and the balanced growth rate unchanged. A reduction in the capital income tax with a revenue-neutral increase in a consumption tax stimulates fertility and dampens the economic growth rate. A decrease in the foreign bond interest income tax with a revenue-neutral increase in a consumption tax depresses fertility and stimulates the balanced growth rate. Finally, in a small open endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility, the state of the economic system determines whether a first-best fiscal policy exists or not.