- 學位論文
客製化公車路線存活分析：可及性之影響
Influences of transit accessibility on survival of customized bus routes
摘要
全球因應永續城市的概念，綠能環保、智慧高效的生活型態已成為勢在必行的政策。綠色交通作為因應的方法之一，能夠透過步行、自行車、大眾運輸導向發展、綠色車輛、車輛共享以達成節能、節省道路空間，客製化公車（customized bus）在此脈絡下發展而成。客製化公車為一乘客需求導向之新型態大眾運輸工具，通過行動應用程式，乘客可提議路線，經由政府、公車業者、乘客三方協力合作，彙整使用者的路線需求完成客製化公車的路線制訂。依客製化路線能滿足消費者需求且讓消費者易於使用的特性而言，普遍認為使用率會高於傳統大眾運輸工具，然而卻有部分路線在開通不久後因載客率過低而導致路線停駛。 本研究目的在以大眾運輸可及性為切入點探討影響客製化公車路線存活的因素，以台北市及新北市為研究區域，53條跳蛙公車路線為樣本，透過新北市跳蛙公車之路線資料並以Google Map估算可及性相關數據，以分層Cox模式進行分析，可藉此將具有相同站點的路線分群，以處理存活分析中樣本間不獨立之問題。 實證結果表明，大眾運輸可及性對於客製化公車的路線存活風險具有影響力，其中運具之間的BTA（By transit accessibility）差距影響大於TTA（to transit accessibility）符合預期假說，並據研究結果提出考量永續運輸規劃之實務建議及研究建議。
並列摘要
Customized bus (CB) is an innovative and demand-oriented mode of public transport (PT) service. The CB routes in Taiwan can be designed in two ways. One is planned by bus operators and local governments. The other way is proposed by potential users who apply mobile apps to raise their demands. Through this demand-oriented way, bus stops may be located closer to users’ origins or destinations. Consequently, CB routes are considered as having better accessibility than general bus routes. CB services provide commuters a more convenient, comfortable and affordable way to use PT. However, CB routes could be cancelled due to insufficient passengers. Hence, this study aims at exploring the determinants of survival of CB routes to clarify why the demand-oriented route design process still results in route cancellation. The CB routes from 2015 to 2019 in Taipei, Taiwan are used as sample data. The difference of transit accessibility between CB routes and general PT routes is adopted to explain survival risk of CB routes. On the other hand, since different routes would share the same bus stops and hence cause interdependent observations, this research applies stratified cox proportional hazard models to analyzed the sample data. The empirical results reveal that transit accessibility is important in users’ decision making. The more the difference in transit accessibility between the customized bus and the general bus, the lower the survival risk of the customized bus. It is expected to assist government operators in understanding the factors affecting the customized bus to make policy.
參考文獻
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