- 學位論文
上市櫃公司的訂單能見度對公司月營業收入的資訊內涵影響
Relation between Public Companies’ Visibility of Order and Information content of Monthly Revenue
摘要
本研究主要針對月營收宣告事件做分析，探討月營收成長對於事件期的累積超額報酬影響力(資訊內涵)，有別於傳統上的研究，本研究首次利用非傳統的資訊變數”訂單能見度”分離篩選觀察樣本。本研究蒐集分析2006年1月到2009年8月約1,500則有關鍵字”訂單能見度”的新聞，並從中篩選出246則揭露了上市櫃製造業公司訂單能見度資訊長度的相關新聞，並利用這些新聞資料，用不同的量尺，區分出8群子樣本，最後對8群子樣本以及母體樣本進行比較，分析因為訂單能見度的長短而產生的月營收宣告事件特性差異。 實證結果發現 1. 控制了月營收成長率之後，當出現正面消息公告事件(公告月營收的月成長率為正)時，對外揭露訂單能見度越短的上市櫃公司，其累積異常股價報酬率，在營收公告的短窗格期間，將會大於對外揭露訂單能見度較長的上市櫃公司。 2. 控制了月營收成長率之後，當出現負面消息公告事件(公告月營收的月成長率為正)時，對外揭露訂單能見度越短的上市櫃公司，其股價累積異常報酬，在營收公告事件的短窗格期間，將會低於對外揭露訂單能見度較長的上市櫃公司。 3. 不論是月營收成長或衰退事件，從上市櫃公司營收公布日的前六天開盤到後四天收盤，出現的累積平均異常報酬與(CAAR)所公佈的營收月成長率相關性在營收公佈日(-9天,+4天)的短窗期最為高。
並列摘要
The study analyzes the event of monthly revenue announcement from aspect of the cumulated average abnormal return during the event period. The unusual part of our study is it firstly introduces an inventive information variable, length of order visibility to classify the raw samples. We collect 1500 news with key word “visibility of order” from Jan, 2006 to Aug, 2009, and filter 246 news disclose the “visibility of order” from it. With these new data and different classification criterion, we separated the samples into 8 groups then made further test and comparison. In the end, we could know whether the “length of order visibility” is influential to the event of monthly revenue announcement or not. The study result: 1. During the period of monthly revenue announcement, the companies’ stock price sensitivity to the monthly revenue change is negative related to the companies’ length of order visibility. During the positive revenue announcement events, companies with shorter order visibility would have higher CARR than the companies with longer order visibility. 2. During the negative revenue announcement events, companies with shorter order visibility would have lower CARR than the companies with longer order visibility. 3. During the short window period (-9day,+4day)in the monthly revenue announcement event, the correlation coefficient between CAAR(cumulated average abnormal return ) and monthly revenue change would be highest in the (-6day,+4day) window.