社群媒體評價個案研究 – 以臉書初次公開發行為例

Case Study on the Valuation of Social Media: Initial Public Offering of Facebook as an Example

李昀昇(Yun-Sheng Li)

指導教授 ： 林嬋娟

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/會計學研究所/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2012.00957

摘要

本論文以目前熱門的社群媒體產業進行評價研究，並以日前甫公開發行的臉書(Facebook) 作為個案探討對象。此因學界對於商業模式極其特殊的社群媒體行業是否得以使用傳統的評價模型，諸如自由現金流量折現評價模型與異常盈餘折現模型等進行評價存有疑慮，並有學者提出諸如羅吉斯曲線等考量使用人口或訪客數等非財務數據的全新模型試圖為社群媒體進行評價，但至今少有文章討論此等新評價模型是否確實得以準確地評價社群媒體？適逢先前臉書初次公開發行，本論文於是以臉書初次公開發行作為個案研究對象，先針對社群媒體、評價模型以及臉書的背景以及日前初次公開發行的過程進行整理跟探討，隨即應用自由現金流量折現、異常盈餘折現以及Cauwels and Sornette (2012)提出的羅吉斯曲現評價模型對臉書初次公開發行時的股價進行評價。結果發現，傳統的自由現金流量折現與異常盈餘折現模型運用在評價社群媒體中確實需要考量活躍的用戶數量變化，但評價結果之區間(每股30.87~59.64美元及23.70~66.97美元)可包含臉書上市後的股價波動情形，顯示傳統模型無須全然被揚棄。至於羅吉斯曲線模型則僅可針對未來用戶涉及收入進行預估，尚無法單獨進行評價工作，而須與上述兩個傳統模型搭配。同時，由於羅吉斯曲線預測使用人口趨緩亦使其預測收入趨緩，故不適合與異常盈餘折現評價模型搭配。整體而言，即便必須考量用戶人口此等非財務資訊，傳統模型仍可運用於評價社群媒體。

關鍵字

臉書 ； 社群媒體 ； 初次公開發行 ； 股權評價 ； 羅吉斯曲線 ； 非財務資訊

並列摘要

This thesis conducts a research on the valuation of the recently popular industry, social media and in a case study approach focusing on Facebook’s initial public offering (IPO) took place in mid May of 2012. The academic opinions about whether social media, which employing a never-have-been-seen business model shall be valued under the traditional valuation methods, including discounted free cash flow valuation model and discounted abnormal earnings valuation business model, haven’t yet been clear. Meanwhile, some scholars have proposed some new models logistic-curve valuation model to value social media, taking into consideration the non-financial indicators like number of users or visitors. However, few papers have conducted research to see whether these newly-established models could more accurately value the social media companies. This thesis thus conducts a case study on Facebook’s IPO, starting from compiling and discussing on social media, valuation techniques and Facebook’s IPO process. Then traditional methods, which are discounted free cash flow valuation method and discounted abnormal earnings valuation method, as well the logistic-curve valuation method proposed by Cauwels and Sornette (2012) are employed to value Facebook’s offering price. The results show that, even if the non-financial information shall be considered while constructing assumptions under traditional methods, discounted free cash flow valuation method (estimating from 30.87~59.64) and discounted abnormal earnings valuation method (estimating from 23.70~66.97) are still proper for valuing the social media while logistic-curve method can’t function alone and can’t deliver superior results to traditional methods.

並列關鍵字

Facebook ； social media ； initial public offering (IPO) ； logistic curve ； non-financial information

參考文獻

Bartov, E., P. Mohanram, and C. Seethamraju. 2002. Valuation of Internet stocks – an IPO perspective. Journal of Accounting Research 40 (2): 321-346.

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Cauwels, P., and D. Sornette. 2012. Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic of a bubble based on nonlinear demographic dynamics. The Journal of Portfolio Management 38 (2): 56-66.

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