自主駕駛與人為駕駛於變換車道行為之量化安全性比較

Quantitative Comparisons in Lane-Changing Maneuver Safety between Autonomous Driving and Human Driver

游右均(Yu-Chun Yu)

指導教授 ： 詹魁元

國立臺灣大學/工學院/機械工程學研究所/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201702930

摘要

車禍中有94% 是由人為疏失引起，因此自主駕駛近年來受到高度關注，被期待能取代人類成為未來主流的交通手段。然而目前少有研究明確提出證據證明自主駕駛確實有能力提供更安全的行車環境，另一方面，自主車輛潛在的危險也缺乏評估。因此本研究建立一套分析方法，嘗試從訊號傳遞過程解釋駕駛系統內部的運作方式，探討各種不確定因素造成的影響，並且量化各項因素以進行數值分析。為了比較自主駕駛與人為駕駛的綜合表現，案例研究使用變換車道作為評估安全的模擬情境，完整展示從意圖產生至結束變換的操作步驟，並藉由安全距離來判斷車輛行為的危險性。在本論文設定的假設下，結果顯示自主駕駛在變換車道的事故機率約略是人為駕駛的百分之一。

關鍵字

人為失誤 ； 自主駕駛 ； 不確定因素 ； 量化研究 ； 變換車道 ； 安全距離

並列摘要

Since human errors account for 94 percent of vehicle crashes, autonomous driving is expected to be the dominant means of transportation in the future. Although driverless technology is promising, little evidence is available to
show that traffic safety is much better without human surveillance. Various challenges of autonomous vehicles are also mentioned in real world traffic. To assess the potential risk in automated vehicle system, we propose a method to quantitatively compare the safety between autonomous driving systems and human drivers. The analysis procedure is demonstrated through a lane-changing maneuver considering the effects of multiple factors. By considering the distance in lane-changing as a safety index, autonomous vehicles are significantly safer than conventional vehicles. The crash rate for an autonomous vehicle decreases to nearly one percent under certain scenario.

並列關鍵字

human error ； autonomous vehicle ； risk assessment ； quantitative research ； lane-change ； safe distance

參考文獻

[1] World Health Organization. “Global Status Report on Road Safety 2015”. http://www.who.int/, 2015.

[3] National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. “Critical Reasons for Crashes

Investigated in the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey”. https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/, 2015.

[8] M. Bertoncello and D. Wee. “Ten Ways Autonomous Driving Could Redefine the Automotive World”. http://www.mckinsey.com/, 2015.

[9] C. Harper, C. Hendrickson, S. Mangones and C. Samaras. “Estimating Potential Increases in Travel with Autonomous Vehicles for the Non-Driving, Elderly and People with Travel-Restrictive Medical Conditions”. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 72: 1–9, 2016.