本研究目的係就具有戰略關係、各有自主決策權的三方,因工業化造成國力變動,在權力轉移過程中,按三方彼此互動心態的差異,推導戰略三角類型變化的可能走勢,戰略三角角色效益雖偶暫下降,但有其權力轉移背景的特殊考量,故藉由分析權力差異因素對戰略三角行為者的決策影響,更擴大了戰略三角理論與權力轉移理論的闡述領域。 權力成熟期的支配國A,與高度工業化且滿意現狀的相對小國C,面對因工業化而快速崛起的新興大國B,在權力轉移過程下的戰略三角變化,將從三邊家族型三角開始,當挑戰國B的國力接近支配國A時,A感到受威脅,先走向為以C為樞紐的羅曼蒂克型三角。在A欲加強阻擋B國力擴大的過程中,A與B均將積極尋求第三國C的支持,將暫時分為三種路徑,即維持以C為樞紐的羅曼蒂克型、AC結婚型或BC結婚型三角。在AC結婚型三角的情形下,當A感到壓制手段無法有效阻擋B的成長與對國際事務的參與,將與B修復關係,成為以A為樞紐的羅曼蒂克型三角;而在BC結婚型三角的情況下,A因己國角色得分下降至最差的孤雛地位,具強烈提升角色動機,將修復與C或B的關係,而形成以C或B為樞紐的羅曼蒂克型三角。上述4種不同成因的羅曼蒂克型三角,交惡的那一組雙邊關係,必尋求恢復和好以促進自身利益,故最後均演變為三邊家族型三角。顯見納入權力落差的戰略三角演變路徑,賦予戰略三角理論更豐富的內涵。
The purpose of this paper is to explore the evolution of strategic triangle under power transition through logical deduction. The dynamic roadmap of strategic triangle under the challenger’s rise to power begins from Menage a trois to Romantic. Facing the situation that both dominant power and challenger compete for alliance, the third nation has three choices: to maintain good relations with both dominant power and rising power, to ally with dominant nation or with challenger only. Marriage triangle will be transformed into different Romantic triangles. To the end, the power of challenger surpasses the dominant nation and becomes a new dominant power. The Romantic Triangle of any type will go to Menage a trois again. The findings of this study are as follows. First, there is no Unit-veto in the process of power transition. Second, although sometimes an actor might downgrade its position voluntarily, it is still a rational choice under power transition. Third, the interactions among players will go to Menage a trois ultimately. This study enriches the contents of Strategic Triangle Theory and makes significant contribution to bring Power Transition Theory into the study of Strategic Triangle.