台灣新成屋房價決定之因素

Ａstudy of the Influential Factors in the Newly Build Housing Prices in Taiwan

蔡雅琪(Ya-Chi Tsai)

指導教授 ： 林建甫

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2015.10419

摘要

本文的目的在於探討房價與貸款利率的關連性，檢視台灣是否因低利率關係導致房價飆漲，惟因台灣房價訊息較不具透明性，故研究上有所限制，此處採用台灣新屋成交價之數據，作為資料分析，研究房價、利率、租金之間的關係與當地的房價走勢，利用多元迴歸模型分析，藉以進一步討論如何使台灣房價恢復合理成長。
在實證模型下，可以發現，貸款利率的變動會影響房價之走勢，當貸款利率長期處於低點時，將使消費者以為持有房貸持之成本低廉而不斷投資，導致房價上漲；利用租金指數之觀察，對於台灣不合理房價之上漲，無顯著之關係，證明台灣房市有泡沫化之傾向；若由總體經濟構面加入變數作為觀察，可發現國內生產毛額及貨幣供給與房價變化呈現相關性，至於消費者物價指數及房價所得比等資訊，依據本研究之觀察，對於房價之變動影響相對較小。

關鍵字

房價 ； 利率 ； 國內生產毛額 ； 貨幣供給 ； 房價所得比

並列摘要

The purpose of this paper is to explore the connection between property prices and interest rates, and examine whether Taiwan’s low interest rates cause property prices to rise, however due to Taiwan’s property information privacy, this research is restricted to Taiwan’s new property prices statistics, by analyzing property prices, interest rates and rental prices during local market progression, with the use of multivariate regression analysis, we can further discuss how to restore reasonable growth rates in Taiwan’s property market.
According to statistical analysis, we can find out changing in loan rates would affect the prices of property. When bank’s interest rate remains low for a very long term, it would mislead investors to continue investing on property which cause higher property prices. Statistic shows rental rates has no significant relationship with Taiwan’s unreasonable soaring property prices. This shows that Taiwan’s property market has a tendency to collapse. With Taiwan’s GDP and currency rates show positive relationship with property prices but for other analysis regarding consumer price index and property prices are relatively minor.

並列關鍵字

property prices ； rates ； GDP ； M1b ； Ratio of house price to income

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