臺灣民眾主權憂慮與兩岸經貿

本文的研究問題是：臺灣民眾為什麼反對兩岸經貿？臺灣民眾對主權問題的關切是否影響了民眾對兩岸經貿的態度？本文將過去文獻中雖有討論，但並未被實證研究過的變數——主權憂慮，作為本文的主要研究變數。本文認為，臺灣民眾因擔憂與中國大陸進一步的經濟整合，會對主權造成負面影響，從而反對兩岸經貿。也就是說，「主權」這一政治符號觸發了臺灣民眾擔憂與中國大陸進一步經濟整合，中國大陸會通過「以經逼政」的手段，矮化臺灣的主權，進而導致民眾反對兩岸經貿。此外，本文也加入經濟利益途徑變數及符號政治途徑變數，以此檢驗影響臺灣民眾對兩岸經貿態度的因素為何。本文利用2014年第一次社會意向調查對上述變數進行統計分析。研究發現，越認為兩岸經貿會對臺灣的主權造成負面影響的民眾，將越反對兩岸簽訂經貿協定。另外，經濟利益途徑及符號政治途徑都可以部分解釋臺灣民眾對兩岸經貿的態度。此外，相比個人利益，民眾更關心兩岸簽訂經貿協定對臺灣造成的整體經濟利益影響。最後，本文也發現，那些認為兩岸經貿會對臺灣主權造成負面影響的民眾，面對經濟利益上有正面的影響，也會提高他們反對簽訂兩岸經貿協定的機率。不過，對臺灣整體經濟利益的考量，仍然是臺灣民眾判斷是否簽訂兩岸服貿協定的重要因素。

關鍵字

兩岸經貿態度；主權；主權憂慮；經濟利益；符號政治

並列摘要

Why do some Taiwanese disagree with the government on trade policy with Mainland China? Does the sovereignty concern make an impact on their opinion on the trade issue with Mainland China? There are two approaches that we can answer these questions, which are “Self-interest Approach” and “Symbolic Politics Approach”. Self-interest approach believes that people agree or disagree with the policies because of their benefits. Symbolic politics approach believes that people agree or disagree with the policies because of their political identity which has formed over a long period. Based on Symbolic politics approach, I believe that those who have greater sovereignty concern are more likely to disagree with the policies on signing the trade agreement with Mainland China. To test my hypothesis, I use the survey data of 2014 Social Image Survey I. The results show that Taiwanese who have greater sovereignty concerns do have a greater probability of disagreeing with the policies on signing the trade agreement with Mainland China. Also, the results show that both self-interest approach and symbolic politics approach can explain the public opinion on cross-strait trade policies. Moreover, from the self-interest approach, Taiwanese are more concerned about the overall benefits to Taiwan than their benefits. Finally, we also find that those who believe that cross-strait trade policies could make a positive impact on economic interests but could make a negative impact on sovereignty tend to disagree with signing the trade agreement with Mainland China. However, to a certain extent, Taiwanese concern for Taiwan’s overall economic interest is still an important factor to decide whether to sign the trade agreement with Mainland China.

並列關鍵字

Public Opinions on Cross-strait Trade ； Sovereignty Concern ； Self-interest ； Symbolic Politics

參考文獻

小笠原欣幸，2014a，《回顧馬政府執政八年：從滿意度的變化及兩岸關係的視角出發》，小笠原HOMEPAGE中文，http://www.tufs.ac.jp/ts/personal/ogasawara/big5/look_back_on_ma's_eight_years_cn.pdf，2020/1/17。