胡錦濤與溫家寶執政下的中國石油外交

China's Oil Diplomacy Under the Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao Leadership

林時偉(Shih-wei Lin)

指導教授 ： 徐斯勤

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/政治學研究所/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2007.10121

摘要

近年來中國的經濟蓬勃發展，石油消費也隨之快速成長，2003年成為全球第二大石油消費國，比國際能源總署（International Energy Agency）原先所預測的時間提早了12年。2002年胡錦濤與溫家寶上台後，即面對著中國進入有史以來石油消費最多的年代，為了保障國家的國家發展，中國在全球各地區施行石油外交。然而，中國對於各地區的石油外交之目的是否相同？其手段又為何？迄今學界尚無完整的探討，尤其是關於石油外交的類型的探討更是未嘗得見，因此，本文企圖對胡溫執政下的中國石油外交做出分類，以釐清其石油外交之目的。

　　本文採用質性的文獻分析法、歷史研究法及比較研究法，另為了增加內容的豐富性與可信度，亦採用訪談研究法，訪問了相關學者、我國與外國的駐外人員。

　　本文首先探討胡溫執政下中國石油外交所面臨的環境，闡述中國能源安全的國際與國內形勢；其次，探討中國因應該環境之政策，提出中國能源戰略與石油外交政策內涵；第三，整理與描述中國在各地區的石油外交作為；第四，區分石油外交下以「能源競爭」目的或以「權力競爭」為目的之不同，透過前述的外交作為，並結合中國能源戰略及石油外交的內涵，建構出中國在各地區的石油外交類型；最後，提出研究發現，並闡述中國石油外交的展望與對臺灣的外溢效果。

　　中國的能源安全面對「石油蘊藏與消費地區的錯位及失衡」、「石油供需形勢日趨緊張」、「國際油價居高不下」、「石油運輸通道的困境」、「新興產油國俄羅斯」、「國際石油競逐」、「中國石油威脅論」等七種國際形勢，以及「國內的石油供需失衡」、「能源消費結構問題」、「能源體制不完善」、「環保問題」等四種國內情勢。

　　面對前述環境，中國亦有能源戰略及石油外交政策以為因應，在能源戰略方面，其要點為「節能」、「開源」、「立足國內」、「環保」、「多元發展」、「走出去」及「合作」等七項；至於石油外交的內涵則是「兼顧三種面向：短期的國內需求、長期的供給自足、總體外交」、「多元化」及「合作與互利」。胡錦濤與溫家寶經常利用重要國際場合，提出對於中國能源戰略與石油外交的觀點，而此觀點又與中國能源戰略與石油外交的內容相符，顯示出中國係有目的、有計劃地確保能源安全，並藉由國際媒體宣揚，設法降低中國在各地區獲取石油的負面效應。

　　本文係在石油外交概念下以能源競爭，抑或以權力競爭做為主要目的，俾釐清中國的石油外交類型。在能源競爭方面有「鞏固」（consolidation）型與「開拓」（expansion）型兩種；在權力競爭方面則是採用David M. Lampton最近針對中國國際權力提出的「槍砲」（gun）、「金錢」（money）及「理念」（idea）等三種面向做為分析基礎。經分析後，本文認為中國的石油外交共有六種類型，分別為：一、中東：能源競爭之「鞏固」（consolidation）型。二、俄羅斯：權力競爭下偏重戰略安全層面之「互利」（synergism）型。三、中亞：權力競爭下偏重戰略安全層面之「防禦」（defense）型。四、非洲：能源競爭之「開拓」（expansion）型。五、亞太地區：權力競爭下偏重經濟利益之「進攻」（offense）型。六、拉丁美洲：權力競爭下偏重柔性權力之「接近」（access）型。

關鍵字

胡溫執政 ； 能源安全 ； 能源戰略 ； 石油外交 ； 類型學

並列摘要

In recent years, due to China's outstanding economic growth, its oil consumption has been rising rapidly as well. In 2003, China became the world's second largest consumer of petroleum, which was 12 years ahead of the International Energy Agency’s previous prediction. Starting in 2002, under the Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao leadership, China was entering a landmark period wherein petroleum consumption reached an all-time high. Therefore, to secure the country's growth and development, China stepped its efforts of oil diplomacy with different oil-producing countries around the globe. With respect to China's oil diplomacy, this thesis begins by asking: Does China's oil diplomacy seek to attain exactly the same purposes as those of other countries? What are the principal policy tools in achieving the end? So far, there have been no systematic academic discussions about the subject. Therefore, this thesis attempts to establish a typology of and analyze China’s oil diplomacy under the Hu-Wen leadership, in order to answer the questions above.

This thesis employs documentary analysis, historical research, and comparative research as the main methodological elements. In addition, to enrich the depth and breadth of this thesis, intensive interviews of a scholar and diplomats of R.O.C. and other countries are also a main source of information.

This thesis firstly attempts to deal with the environment that China’s oil diplomacy faces, and points out international and domestic situations of energy security. Second, it discusses China's energy strategies and oil diplomacy in the situations above. Third, it describes how China has implemented its oil diplomacy towards other countries. Forth, by distinguishing between “competing for energy” and “competing for power” in China’s oil diplomacy to various countries, a typology is constructed to highlight their differences. Finally, this thesis summarizes the research findings, and discusses their implications for Taiwan.

China's energy security is affected chiefly by seven international and four domestic factors. The external influences include “imbalance in oil reserve and consumption in the world”,“oil demand and supply problem”“continued rise in world oil prices”,“problems in oil transportation”,“Russia as the new oil producing country”,“increased international competition for oil”, “threat of China’s oil needs”. The domestic factors are “imbalance in China’s oil production and demand”, “problems in the structure of energy consumption”, “inadequate energy infrastructures”, and“environmental protection”.

In light of these, China has crafted its energy strategy and designed its oil diplomacy to cope with the above-mentioned challenges. In the area of energy strategy, the main thrusts are energy conservation, finding new energy source, base on China, environmental protection, pluralistic development, reaching out overseas and cooperation. Oil diplomacy focuses on three aspects:
1. Considering three dimensions: short-term needs, long-term supply and self-sufficiency, and overall foreign policy.
2. Pluralization.
3. Cooperation and mutual benefits.

Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao often take advantage of international events to discuss China’s views on its energy strategy and oil diplomacy, both of which match the actual contents of their energy strategy and oil diplomacy. These actions ensure energy security, and deliver to the international media specific images to lower the negative perception of China’s aggressive oil purchase globally.

The purpose of this thesis is to discuss the oil diplomacy and the competition for energy, as well as the power competition that comes with them. It also aims to clearly categorize China’s oil diplomacy. In those areas where China’s oil diplomacy aims to compete for energy, the resulting patterns include “consolidation” and “expansion”. Where it seeks to compete for power, this thesis identifies different patterns by invoking David M. Lampton’s recent insight on the various faces of China’s international power, including those in “gun”, “money”, and “idea.” Overall speaking, this thesis concludes that China’s oil diplomacy can be divided into six main types:
1. Middle East: the pattern of “consolidation” in competing for energy.
2. Russia: the pattern of “synergism” in competing for power, focusing on strategic security.
3. Central Asia: the pattern of “defense” in competing for power, focusing on strategic security.
4. Africa: the pattern of “expansion” in competing for energy.
5. Asia-Pacific: the pattern of “offense” in competing for power, focusing on economic interest.
6. Latin America: the pattern of “access” in competing for power, focusing on soft power.

並列關鍵字

Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao Leadership ； energy security ； energy strategy ； oil diplomacy ； typology

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