以引力模型分析貿易協議及可耕地 對尼加拉瓜農業出口之影響

The Effects of Trade Agreements and Arable Land on Nicaraguan Agricultural Exports: A Gravity Model Approach

馬莉亞(Maria Celeste Lopez Gonzalez)

指導教授 ： 雷立芬

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/農業經濟學研究所/碩士(2020年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202001480

摘要

None

關鍵字

None

並列摘要

This study, through the implementation of a gravity model, attempts to analyze the impacts of the existence of trade agreements and importers’ arable land on Nicaraguan agricultural exports in order to provide insights for policymakers. Using a panel data that covers data from 1995 to 2018 among 27 partner countries, the results suggest that Nicaragua's agricultural exports are positively related to the national GDP and the importing country GDP, as well as to subscribed trade agreements, in particular the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA). The specific ex-post analysis of the DR-CAFTA over the agricultural exports indicate, this free trade agreement means trade creation for the country and has generated an increase of agricultural exports by more than 50% since its execution. On the other hand, the estimates also suggest that there is a negative correlation between the agricultural exports and the geographical distance, as well as the size of the arable land in the importing country. Given the findings of this study, there is strong evidence of the key role the trade agreements in special the DR-CAFTA plays to lead the expansion of the Nicaraguan agricultural exports. Therefore, this thesis tries to serve as a reference for policy-makers, in order they can articulate appropriated trade policies that allow a greater use of the benefits generated by these trade agreements, as a strategy to boost export competitiveness and the integrated economic development in the country.

並列關鍵字

Nicaragua ； Agricultural Exports ； Gravity Model ； DR-CAFTA ； Importers’ Arable Land

參考文獻

References

Aguirre, M., Candia, C., Antón, L., Beltrán, J. (2018). A Gravity Model of Trade for Nicaraguan Agricultural Exports. Cuadernos de Economía, 37(74), 391-428.

Anderson, J. E. (1979). A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation. The American Economic Review, 69 (1), 106-116.

Anderson, J. E. (2011). The gravity model. Annual Review of Economics 3(1), 133-160.

Anderson, J. E., Van Wincoop, E. (2003). Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle. American Economic Review, 93(1), 170-192.