- 學位論文
產業於生命週期中之水平購併行為分析
Endogenous Horizontal Mergers over the Industry Life Cycle
摘要
在資本經濟體系全球化的當下，企業購併已成為影響產業結構的重要機制。然而企業購併的趨勢卻始終令人感覺捉摸不定，沒有固定規則可循。雖然企業購併一向是熱門的研究主題，然而學界對於產業內在環境的變化如何影響企業水平購併行為，卻少有研究。對企業來說，能夠分析產業成長的階段與態勢對於購併的影響，可幫助企業發展出對未來的策略視野，並進而提升其在進行投資與購併方面的競爭力。 隨著產業生命週期的發展，市場由創新初期演化至快速成長再進入成熟期，而產業的結構也隨之變化。根據產業經濟學的結構-行為-績效(Structure–Conduct–Performance)論述，企業的策略行為會受到外在環境的影響而改變。因此在產業生命週期的不同階段，企業的投資、市場切入、退出、購併等重大策略行為，也應該會隨著各階段競爭結構的不同而有差異。 本研究主旨即在研究產業生命週期與企業策略行為間之關係。本研究假設廠商的成長策略主要包含內部投資與外部購併，而廠商在選擇成長策略時，會以短期利益最大化為原則。在此假設下，本研究提出一產業生命週期發展模型，並運用演化賽局作為工具，以分析在產業生命週期中廠商的互動關係。 本研究發現在整體產業生命週期中，並不存在任何具有穩定演化優勢的純粹策略。有些策略在產業演化的某個階段表現甚佳，卻在其他階段屈居人下。這也代表在產業演化的不同階段需要有不同的成長策略。研究模擬的結果也進一步顯示，具有隨環境適應能力的策略的表現，會比其他純粹策略出色。 本研究的結果可幫助企業在產業生命週期不同的階段發展其策略。除此之外，本研究建立之模型也可協助企業選擇其成長策略，改進策略定位，並作為進行購併之參考。
並列摘要
Mergers played a pivotal role in shaping the business world under today’s global economy, yet few elements in the business world are as chaotic and seemingly unpredictable as mergers and acquisitions. According to the structure-conduct-performance paradigm of industrial organization, the strategic behaviors of firms in the market will be conditioned by the overall market structure. This implies that the strategic behaviors of firms may change as the market evolves from inception through high-growth to saturation. Specifically, corporate strategies such as investments, entries, exits and horizontal mergers are likely to be conditioned by the business environment governed by the stage of industry development. However, while there has been a considerable empirical academic work that on merger, there is surprisingly little analysis on how changes in the endogenous economic fundamentals affects merger. Specifically, no formal research work has been conducted to analyze the effect of endogenous horizontal mergers on industries with network externalities under the context of industry life cycle. Being able to analyze the position of an industry on its industry life cycle can help a firm to develop a strategic viewpoint and therefore a core competence in managing merger and acquisition activities. The intention of the thesis is to study the inter-relationships between industry life cycle and the strategic behavior of firms. This thesis presents a stylized model to reflect the complex dynamics of the competition and strategic behaviors of firms over the industry life cycle. A recently developed tool, evolutionary games, is employed to explore this dynamics of an industry along its development cycle. Under the research of this thesis, it is assumed that the growth strategy of firms is consisted of investment (organic growth) and mergers (external growth). Firms are also assumed to be myopic in choosing among those endogenous strategic options to maximize expected profits. It is found that no pure growth strategy is evolutionary stable throughout the industry life cycle. However, some strategies survive certain periods of industry development better than others. In a sense, each stages of industry development calls for a different growth strategy. Furthermore, simulation results indicate that in the industry life cycle, an adaptive strategy will actually perform better than other pure strategies. The results of this thesis can be used to derive a set of strategic implications for firms at different stages of the industry life cycle. Furthermore, the model developed by the thesis can potentially be used as a tool for firms to choose their growth strategies, to improve their strategic positions, as well as to facilitate the merger integration processes.