中國工業用紙業廠商國內廢紙原料採購決策之動態競爭研究

工業用紙主要生產包裝用的面紙與瓦楞芯紙，廢紙是中國工業用紙的重要原料，佔生產成本60%以上，對資本密集的造紙業而言，設備投資是沉沒成本，要生產那些產品組合則是策略性行動。當中國造紙設備紛紛走向現代化的今日，先進紙機與技術的引進使產能與品質日趨穩定，於是廢紙原料採購的戰術性行動成為攸關企業獲利的關鍵。中國國內廢紙不足供應生產所需，有半數仰賴從歐美與日本進口，由於廢紙只能靠回收而不能以生產取得，數量有限的國內廢紙原料遂形成零和賽局，收購量多寡主要決定於對手的廢紙牌價策略。然而多數企業在持續重複的對抗競爭中，並未系統化地累積與對手的交手經驗，紛沓雜亂的資訊不及用來產生對策方案，於是廢紙收購量價的決策主要仍依靠企業經理人主觀知覺與慣性經驗。本研究將中國工業用紙產業依規模大小及對進口廢紙與國內廢紙的依賴程度，將產業中的廠商分成三個策略群組，利用分屬不同群組的兩家大廠為代表，進行廠商對偶層次 (firm dyad-level) 的分析，研究方法以賽局理論的理性選擇為基礎，將兩者每日在廢紙市場的策略性行為作為分析單位，包括庫存政策、收購量與價格，探討廢紙市場競爭績效的意涵，採用知覺–動機–能力觀點 (Chen, 1996) 來預測焦點廠商與其競爭對手在廢紙市場的互動行為，將量化數據結合到動態競爭相關理論，直接檢視雙方經理人的觀點及每日一來一往的互動結果如何左右攻擊者與回應者下一步的決策，並設計出廢紙牌價的決策流程與邏輯。研究結果顯示，競爭互動分析若能不僅從自己，更能從對手角度思考，可幫助企業產生更大的競爭優勢與效益；另外，擁有豐富競爭者資訊的外部導向廠商只要能兼具主動攻擊或積極對抗的特性，不圖搭順風車的好處而盲目地模仿對手跟隨起舞，就有能力塑造出對自己更有利的情勢，本研究亦提供了一個系統化分析內外部資訊與利用量化數據預測對手行動的機制。

關鍵字

賽局理論；動態競爭；知覺-動機-能力觀點；中國工業用紙；國內廢紙採購決策

並列摘要

China’s industrial paper mills are using wastepaper which account for over 60% of production cost as the main raw material for manufacture of linerboard and corrugating medium that are used by packaging industry. The pulp and paper industry is highly capital-intensive and the large investment on equipment constitutes as sunk cost and the product mix decision is very strategic in nature. While China’s industrial paper manufacturing becomes modernization, the production capacity and the ability of producing high-quality products are increasing gradually. As a result, the tactical action in purchasing of wastepaper becomes a critical factor to the company's profitability. Since the supply of domestic wastepaper is insufficient to meet the industry total needs, major players import half of their demand from the worldwide market, such as US, Europe and Japan. Since the supply of wastepaper can only rely on recycling, therefore the limited quantity of domestic wastepaper becomes a zero-sum game and each competitor’s purchase is mainly determined by its rivals’ bid price of wastepaper. In such an infinitely repeated game, however, most of the players do not have a systematic approach to get the best results from the interactive games. They merely rely upon subjective managerial perceptions and all reveal significant inertia. The purpose of the present research is to provide a firm-level analysis on how to establish a wastepaper purchasing decision framework based on competitive dynamics thinking. Specifically, major players are first divided into three strategic groups according to their scale and dependence on imported and domestic wastepaper. Firm dyad-level analysis has been conducted by means of two manufacturers that belong to different strategic groups as representative samples. With game theoretical rational thinking, our analysis focus on the daily action/response dyad of wastepaper, including inventory policy, bid price and procurement amount. We then adopt the awareness-motivation-capability perspective proposed by Chen (1996) to predict the move between a focal firm and a given rival in the wastepaper market. With detailed quantitative analysis, we are able to apply competitive dynamics ideas to help managers make sense out of the competitive interactions Our result shows that firms understand their rivals’ perceptions will have better competition advantage, compare with those who only see things from his own view. In addition, instead of following or imitating rivals’ actions, a firm with an external orientation and richer competitor information is capable to shape the game and get advantages from acting proactively and responding aggressively.