後冷戰時期中共對美平衡戰略：上海合作組織個案研究

China's Balancing Strategy against the U.S. in the Post-Cold War Era: A Case Study On the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

林伯雍(Po-Yung Lin)

指導教授 ： 明居正

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/國家發展研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2013.01215

摘要

傳統的權力平衡長期為現實主義國家間的互動邏輯，然而在霸權體系下，大國的安全互動是否還是過往單純的權力平衡？2001年，國際體系誕生了一個非美國主導的安全組織－「上海合作組織」，該組織的合作從傳統安全合作開始，一路擴展至非傳統安全合作，而其組織究竟是否蘊含平衡美國的邏輯，長期以來學界內眾說紛紜。為了探明霸權體系下大國的安全戰略，本研究將以後冷戰時期的中美互動作為研究案例。上海合作組織為中共後冷戰時期所提出的安全戰略－「新安全觀」的具體實踐，為了探明中共在戰略上的構思，本研究將問題意識定為：後冷戰時期，中共如何透過上合組織與美國展開互動？
本研究嘗試從三個方向來論證中共的安全戰略。首先，本研究將先探究中共對於中俄合作以及構建上海五國的意圖為何；其次，將探究後續合作的成果是否與意圖有所連結。最後從實證的結果中論證中共新安全觀的定位。
在具體的論證上，本研究耙梳1996年至2012年上合組織的戰略構思、非傳統安全合作與傳統安全合作後發現：
一、 在合作進程中，中俄為領導上合組織的主要國家，而中俄合作與上海五國的戰略構思則始於對美國後冷戰時期權力擴張的平衡回應。在這進程中，確認了中共的戰略意圖為平衡美國。
二、 在非傳統安全合作方面，中共則逐漸透過上合組織提昇其權力與抗衡資本，以此抵消美國對中共的圍堵壓力。具體實踐方面，中共透過經略中亞，完成能源合作、反恐合作，提昇其在中亞的大國地位、加深其戰略與資源縱深與在安全議題的影響力，在與俄羅斯的合作則加強其能源安全。
三、 在傳統安全方面，中共則透過上合組織軍事演習，發展其實質軍事力量，並以此嚇阻周遭區域國家；在外交方面，則透過上合組織的發展與制度化，建立一個沒有美國因素的上合組織外交平台，讓成員國得以互相聲援、並發表平衡美國的外交立場。
透過上述論證，本研究首先確認中俄對於美國的平衡意圖，並透過探討上合組織的合作，進一步加強該組織與中共的平衡意圖，並以此充實新安全觀指引下的平衡戰略。
總的來說，中共強調非冷戰思維的新安全觀，實為「掩護中共發展、實踐掌握資源、發展安全盟友，擴大外交影響力的發展型安全戰略。」而其實踐結果，顯然為對抗，並非強調非對抗的新型態安全觀，以此脈絡來論，上合組織即為一個高度平衡美國的組織。然而，該平衡型態卻非全面性，而是「有限平衡」(Limited balamce)。對於中共與上合組織而言，全面性的對抗並非最佳選擇，在抗衡成本的考量、美國未加強圍堵力道以及上合組織內部領導權未定下，有限平衡將持續作為中共對美國的平衡手段。

關鍵字

中俄合作 ； 上海五國 ； 新安全觀 ； 意圖 ； 非傳統安全 ； 傳統安全 ； 有限平衡

並列摘要

For a long time, the interactive logic between realist countries has been the traditional balance of power theory. However, it is questionable if the great powers still follow this logic in the hegemony system. In 2001, a non U.S. leading security organization, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), was founded under current international regimes. The cooperation strategy of the SCO began with traditional security cooperation and expanded to non-traditional one. Whether one of the intents for the SCO is to balance the power of the U.S. or not has been a controversial issue in academia. In order to explore the security strategies of the great powers in the hegemony system, this Research will conduct a case study based on the interaction between the U.S. and China in the post-Cold War era. The establishment of the SCO is a substantial practice of China's security strategy: New Security, which was proposed in the post-Cold War era. To clarify China's strategic intention, the major research question of this Research is: In the era of post-Cold War, how China interacts with the U.S. through the SCO?
This Research examines China's security strategies from three perspectives. First of all, this Research explores the intention of China concerning to China-Russia Cooperation and Shanghai Five Group. Furthermore, this Research analyzes if there is any connection between the consequences of subsequent cooperation and the intention. Finally, this Research discusses China's New Security based on the empirical analyses.
The discoveries of this Research according to the discussion on the strategic intention, non-traditional and traditional cooperation of the SCO during 1996 and 2012 are as follows:
1. In the progress of cooperation, China and Russia are the leading countries of the SCO. And the strategic arrangements of China-Russia Cooperation and Shanghai Five Group are the responses to the power expansion of the U.S. in the era of post-Cold War, confirming that China's strategic intention is to balance the U.S.
2. From the perspective of non-traditional security cooperation, China gradually accumulates its power and balancing capital through the SCO and resists the containment pressure from the U.S. China gets involved in Central Asia affairs, achieves cooperation in energy and anti-terrorism, and raises its great power position in Central Asia. Therefore, China has more impacts on issues of strategies, energy and security. Respecting to the cooperation with Russia, it enhances the energy security.
3. From the perspective of traditional security, China amplifies its military power by means of the military maneuvers performed by the SCO and deters the peripheral countries in the region. From the perspective of diplomacy, a diplomatic platform without American factor was set up through the expansion and institutionalization of the SCO. The member states of the SCO express support with each other and state opinions to balance the U.S.
In summary, China's emphasis on New Security is just camouflage. The hidden intention is a developmental security strategy: to cover China's development, take control of energy, develop security alliance, and increase diplomatic influences. It is apparent that China's security strategy is adversarial instead of non-adversarial New Security. Therefore, the SCO can be seen as an organization to greatly balance the U.S. The type of balance is not comprehensive but only limited (Limited Balance). For China and the SCO, comprehensive balance is not an optimal choice. Considering limited balancing capital, no increased containment pressure from the U.S., and uncertain internal leadership of the SCO, Limited Balance will continue to be the balancing strategy for China to the U.S.

並列關鍵字

China-Russia Cooperation ； Shanghai Five Group ； New Security ； Intention ； non-traditional Security ； Traditional Security ； Limited Balance

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