風險分攤概念應用於水資源最佳分配之理論探討

Theoretical Framework of Water Allocation based on the Concept of Risk-Sharing

許哲明(Che-Ming Hsu)

指導教授 ： 游景雲

國立臺灣大學/工學院/土木工程學研究所/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2014.01304

摘要

水，是世界上一切生命不可缺少的資源。現今，在面對各種氣候和社會經濟挑戰下，以水為基礎的資源管理成為一個顯著的問題，且鑒於自然和水文過程之不確定性，使我們對於複雜、高效率水資源管理實踐，變得更加困難。因此有效的風險分擔機制，成為解決用水短缺或洪水的關鍵。本研究旨在探討風險分擔機制於水資源管理的概念與應用。故本研究開發了一個概念模式，討論兩個與水有關的異構利益相關者的風險承擔行為。基於風險分擔的理論，本研究將藉由模擬，釐清這不確定情形下之結果。透過檢視各利益相關方的獲利與損失，本研究試圖提供一個基於風險下，更好的決策與政策制定過程。對於有限資源分配問題能有更好解答，提供兩個利益相關者一個公平、合理、互利的解決方案。透過此種方式，決策者可以透過增進水資源相關公部門的管理效率來增進社會大眾之福祉。

關鍵字

風險分攤 ； 水資源分配 ； 邊際分析

並列摘要

Water is an essential resource for all forms of life in the world. Facing various climate and social-economic challenges, the management of water-based resources becomes a significant issue nowadays. However, the inherent uncertainty of nature and hydrological processes could complicate the practices of efficient water resources management. Efficient risk sharing mechanism is critical for dealing with water shortages or flood. This study aims to investigate the concept and application of risk sharing mechanism of in water resources management. The study develops a conceptual model to discuss the risk taking behavior of two heterogeneous water-related stakeholders. Based on the theory of risk-sharing, the simulation was performed to know the outcome under uncertain situation. By examining premiums and losses of each water stakeholder, this study provide a better risk-based decision/policy making process. The study find answers to such kind of problems and provides a fair, reasonable, and beneficial solution between different agents. By this way, decision makers will able to enhance public welfare through the deliberate management of water resources.

並列關鍵字

Risk-sharing ； Water resource allocation ； Marginal analysis

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