新台幣貶值是否有助於我國出口?

本文的目的是分析台灣出口貿易與匯率之間的關係。我們試圖檢視是否真如外界一般咸認，新台幣貶值有利於出口。同時，我們進一步探討台灣在全球價值鏈之參與程度如何影響匯率與出口之間的關係。台灣出口產業企盼中央銀行可以維持低匯率，讓台灣產品具國際競爭力。然而，隨著出口產品所需的進口中間財投入比例增加，出口的匯率彈性亦可能會因而下降，亦即，匯率貶值對於刺激出口的效果未必能符合預期。本研究以 1996:M1－2011:M12 的月資料，透過時間序列模型分析，檢視出口與匯率之間的動態關係。實證結果發現，貨幣貶值在早期有助於出口增加，此結果與外界的預期一致。然而，隨著近年國際情勢及雙邊貿易競合等因素改變，匯率與出口的關係似乎開始呈現脫鉤的現象。尤有甚者，由於我國全球價值鏈參與程度很高，進而影響兩者之間的關係，使得出口匯率彈性呈現具有統計顯著性的下降。即使只考慮 2007 年全球金融危機之前的樣本期間 (1996:M1－2007:M12)，實證結果並無二致。

關鍵字

出口；匯率；出口匯率彈性；貨幣貶值；全球價值鏈

並列摘要

This study aims to analyze the relationship between Taiwan's exports and the New Taiwan (NT) dollar exchange rate. In particular, we exam whether a depreciation of NT dollar helps to boost exports. We further explore how Taiwan's participation in global value chains has affected the relationship between exchange rates and exports. As the proportion of imported intermediate materials required for export products increases, the exchange rate elasticity of exports may decline accordingly. That is, the effect of exchange rate depreciation on stimulating exports may not be in line with expectations. Using monthly data from 1996 to 2011, it is found that currency depreciation is beneficial to exports in the early sample periods. However, with the changes in international business environment and bilateral trade competition in recent years, the relationship between exchange rate and exports seems to be weakened. In particular, due to Taiwan's growing participation in global value chains, the exchange rate elasticity of exports has declined with statistical significance. Even considering the period before the Great Recession, the empirical results remain robust.