醫藥產業中運用迴歸模型估計潛在病患數量

Utilizing Regression for Patient Potential Estimation in the Pharmaceutical Industry

卓順興(Shun-Hsing Cho)

指導教授 ： 郭佳瑋

共同指導教授 ： 孔令傑(Ling-Chieh Kung)

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/商學組/碩士(2021年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202103178

摘要

找出個別醫生的潛在患者是醫藥產業銷售的關鍵因素。按照之前的操作方法，找出每位醫師的潛在患者是基於銷售團隊的經驗，但它可能不是一個系統性的方法，所收集的數據會受到銷售團隊經驗差距的影響。為了解決這個問題，我們進行以迴歸模型來預測個別醫生潛在患者數量並且評估相關影響因素的研究。本研究包含了名醫程度、醫院位置、醫師OPD人數、醫師職稱、科別和教職等變數。在我們的研究中，迴歸模型可以擬合肺癌治療領域的44% 樣本（調整後的 R2=0.4439）和慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）治療領域的38% 樣本（調整後的 R2=0.3807）。該迴歸模型的建立，可以減輕銷售團隊從市場採集數據的工作量，並找出相關因子作為醫藥產業銷售資源配置的參考。

關鍵字

客戶潛力 ； 迴歸模型 ； 醫藥產葉

並列摘要

The potential patient finding of individual physician is a crucial factor for the sales promotion in pharmaceutical industry. Following the previous operation approach, the potential finding of each is based on the sales team experience, however, it could be not a systemic approach and the data difference will be impacted by experience gap of sales team. To address this issue, a study of utilizing a regression model to evaluate the relevant factors for potential patient number finding for individual physicians. The variables of degree of celebrity, location of hospital, the OPD numbers of physicians, title of physicians, specialty and faculty of physicians are involved this study. In our study, the regression model could fit the 44% sample (adjusted R2=0.4439) in lung cancer therapeutic area and 38% sample (adjusted R2=0.3807) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) therapeutic area. The regression model could be applied to be a reference sources to reduce the work loading of sales team for data collection in filed and find the relevant factors for promotion resources allocation in pharmaceutical industry.

並列關鍵字

customer potential ； regression model ； pharmaceutical industry

參考文獻

1. Ziganshina, L., J. Lexchin. (2010). Regulation of pharmaceutical promotion: why does regulation matter? The politics of medicines (e-Encyclopaedia). Available at: https://haiweb.org/encyclopaedia/regulation-of-pharmarceutical-promotion-2/. Retrieved on July 2, 2021.

2. Novartis. (2020). 2019 Annual Report. Available at: https://www.novartis.com/sites/www.novartis.com/files/novartis-annual-report-2019.pdf. Retrieved on July 6, 2021.

3. Novartis. (2021). 2020 Novartis Annual Report. Available at: https://www.novartis.com/sites/www.novartis.com/files/novartis-annual-report-2020.pdf. Retrieved on July 6, 2021.

4. Roche. (2020). 2019 Roche Financial Report. Available at: https://www.roche.com/investors/annualreport19.htm. Retrieved on July 6, 2021.

5. Roche. (2021). 2020 Roche Financial Report. Available at: https://www.roche.com/investors/annualreport20.htm. Retrieved on July 6, 2021.