溫室氣體減量策略對台灣產業部門衝擊之評估－多目標決策方法之應用

The Impact of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies on Taiwanese Industries－Application of Multiple Objective Decision Method

曾禹傑(Yu-Jie Tzeng)

指導教授 ： 梁啟源

共同指導教授 ： 林惠玲(Hui-Lin Lin)

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2007.00800

摘要

本研究透過結合產業關聯分析與多目標規劃理論所建構出來的3E多目標資源整合規劃模型，針對溫室氣體總量管制、能源稅、電價合理化及碳稅等五項議題設計七組情境分別進行模擬。在溫室氣體總量管制的情境中，我們著重於評估，經濟、能源與二氧化碳三大目標的變化、各產業所受到的衝擊程度以及產業結構的變化方向。藉此可以評估未來二氧化碳減量壓力之下的優化產業結構。在能源稅、電價合理化與碳稅的情境中，我們著重評估不同能源價格調整策略下，三大目標的變化、二氧化碳減量成本的差異、產業透過價格誘因進行節能與能源替代的行為與能源需求量的變動趨勢。研究結果如下：
溫室氣體總量管制規劃的結果顯示：
1.在二氧化碳減量的壓力下，服務業是未來發展的主流。
2.在產業結構調整趨勢方面，我們發現：除了商品買賣及其他服務業與紙及印刷出版品製造業產業結構呈現上升趨勢外，其餘產業的結構配比全部下降。
3.鋼鐵業及石化原料業在兩次模擬中都是大幅衰退的產業之一。因此就整體規劃的比較靜態效果來說，本研究並不鼓勵這兩大耗能產業的大型投資案的設立。
在能源稅、電價合理化與碳稅的情境中，規劃結果顯示：
1.電價調整案優於能源稅草案與碳稅，相較於能源稅條例草案下每單位二氧化碳減量成本為3641元、碳稅1598元，電價調整案僅有363元。
2.能源稅草案與碳稅的節能效果優於電價調整案，但CO2減量效果卻不如電價案合理化案，主要的原因在於電力的二氧化碳排放係數是本研究8種燃料中最高的，高達7.4186 (tCO2/10*7kcal)。因此，電力是決定CO2排放量的關鍵能源。
3.在稅收相近的前提下，碳稅的CO2減量效益超過能源稅。

關鍵字

溫室氣體減量 ； 產業關聯分析 ； 多目標規劃理論 ； 產業結構調整 ； 二氧化碳減量成本 ； 能源稅 ； 碳稅 ； 總量管制

並列摘要

In this study we integrate the input-output approach and multiple objective programming to establish the multiple-objective decision models. The main objectives of our programming are economic, energy demand and CO2 emissions. The model simulates and analyzes the impacts of CO2 mitigation strategies in four topics, seven scenarios. Four topics are total emissions control, energy tax, electricity price adjustment, and carbon tax. In scenarios of total CO2 emission control, we focus on assessing impacts of total CO2 emission control on the trade-off among three conflicting objectives, output of industries, and future industrial structure. Under the pressure of CO2 reduction, we can find out the improved industrial structure in the future. In scenarios of energy tax, electricity price adjustment, and carbon tax, we focus on assessing impacts of different price adjustment strategy of energy on the trade-off among three conflicting objectives, the CO2 reduction cost, energy conserving and substituting behavior of industries, and the moving trend of the energy demand.
The results of total CO2 emission control show:
1. Under the pressure of CO2 reduction, service industry is a mainstream industry in the future.
2. If we observe industrial structure adjustment trend, we can find that most industries falls in the weight of industry structure under the pressure of CO2 reduction, except for service industry and paper industry.
3. Steel industry and petrochemical industry are both one of the industries of declining by a large scale in the simulation. As to comparatively static result of overall plan, our research does not encourage the large-scale investment of steel industry and petrochemical industry.
In the scenarios of energy taxation, electricity price adjustment and carbon taxation, results show:
1. Form the viewpoint of CO2 reduction cost, electricity price adjustment strategy is superior to the implementation of energy taxation and carbon taxation. Relative to the cost of energy taxation is 3641 NT dollar per unit carbon dioxide reduction, the cost of carbon taxation is 1598 NT dollar per unit carbon dioxide reduction, and the cost of electricity price adjustment strategy is only 361 NT dollars per unit carbon dioxide reduction.
2. Although the effect of energy taxation and carbon taxation are more energy-conserving than electricity price adjustment, electricity price adjustment strategy is more effective in carbon dioxide reduction. The main reason lies in that the carbon dioxide discharge coefficient of electricity is the tallest of 8 kinds of fuel in this research , up to 7.4186 (tCO2/ kcal); therefore, electricity is the key energy which determines the amount of CO2 emission.
3. Base on the premise that the tax revenue is close; the effect of carbon dioxide reduction of the carbon taxation exceeds the energy taxation.

並列關鍵字

greenhouse gases mitigation ； input-output approach ； multiple-objective programming ； industrial structure adjustment ； CO2 reduction cost ； energy tax ； carbon tax ； total emissions control

參考文獻

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