烏克蘭從古至今皆處於政治中心的邊陲地帶。烏克蘭在1991年重獲獨立後,一方面仍然受到俄羅斯的影響,另一方面也受到歐盟和北約的引力,烏克蘭的外交走向儼然成為西方國家和俄國之間的競技場,在2004年的橙色革命達到最高點。2004年之前的庫其馬政府有意推動烏克蘭入盟,但礙於與俄國關係和政治理念,最後仍無息而終。橙色革命後,新上任的尤先科政府將入盟北約定為國策,但卻不徹底執行入盟所必須的改革,使北約無意也無力通過烏克蘭的會員行動計畫案。同時面對俄國壓力和烏克蘭內部凝結力的缺乏,使得尤先科政府的外交政策與其選舉承諾不符。 本文主旨在於說明烏克蘭在2008年申請入盟北約失敗的過程。烏克蘭申請會員行動計畫失敗的主因可分為內在和外在因素,前者包括人民對入盟北約的反對、政局不穩和改革失敗;外在因素則以俄國和西歐國家的反對為主,使烏克蘭無法在2008年的布加勒斯特高峰會上獲得MAP資格。 本文最終將檢討烏克蘭入盟失敗的主因,以及未來讓烏克蘭加入北約的必要條件。烏克蘭必須在達成國內共識和與俄國改善關係,同時西方與俄國重新交好的情況下,方能再度叩關北約大門。
Ukraine, formerly the Ukrainian SSR, declared independence in 1991 but has yet to achieve integration with either the CIS or the EU. The author considers recent developments concerning its efforts to join the NATO alliance to be crucial in deciding the country’s future and the geopolitics of Eastern Europe and beyond. This thesis seeks to assess the conception and implementation of Ukrainian policy and the ultimate failure to obtain a NATO Membership Action Plan in 2008. Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has been transforming itself from a purely defensive alliance to a regional security organization that operates “out of area” and promotes western ideas such as democracy and market economy. NATO operations in conflict areas such as Kosovo and Afghanistan and its enlargement since the incorporation of the former GDR have challenged relations between Moscow and Washington as well as Paris and Berlin. The Ukrainian bid for membership in NATO not only strained relations between Russia and the US, but also divided NATO as most Western European countries blocked its application in Bucharest in 2008. What caused the failure was not only Ukraine’s position as an ill-prepared country with considerable political and economic problems, but also its security environment and its position as the bulwark between NATO and Russia. The author will attempt to analyze the reasons behind the failed 2008 bid and assess the future possibilities of Ukrainian membership in NATO.