中共「海洋強國」戰略研究 （2000-2018 ）—意圖、能力、行為之分析

本研究旨在探討中共海洋強國戰略發展變化與發展限制。藉由結構現實主義、地緣戰略的分析架構，從歷史政治學、權力政治學等面向進行辨析，於國家利益的軸線上解讀中共海洋強國戰略的核心，兼採國際關係理論的視角，同時運用分析層次概念（世界－區域一國家），具體論述中共海洋強國戰略發展時所產生的史實論證、利益博弈及機制建構。循此硏究理路，本研究認為，中共海洋強國戰略係在海陸統籌的基礎下，以區域海權的方式，實現其五個標的，即：海洋資源開發合理有序；海洋生態環境有效保護；海洋經濟運行平穩發展；海洋權益得到有效維護；海洋科技水準大幅提升。同時中共並以和平海權的方式要求各國遵循聯合國海洋法公約等方式來實踐。「外交途徑-妥協」將是解決領土主權的核心概念。然中共在發展航母維護現階段海洋權益時，確有攻勢現實主義的影子，長遠而言，未來中共海洋強國戰略發展情況及變化，將取決於經濟及軍事實力。整體而論，中共海洋強國戰略從意圖、能力、行動三個變項作出研究，核心問題是中共要建設成一個怎麼樣的海洋強國，中共企圖以「和平海權」的方式來發展在2020年建設成為中等海洋強國，2050年建設成為世界性海洋強國，其未來發展實值吾人關注。近年中共「核心利益」内涵不斷廣化，為中共處理周邊問題設定底線。當前中共倡議建構「中」美新型大國關係、新型軍事關係，新型海權關係，試圖取得主動權。「核心利益」似已發揮示警與外交槓桿效果。長遠而言，未來美「中」兩強海權在亞太區域秩序之變化，將取決於雙方實際能力及佈局策略。

關鍵字

海洋強國戰略；新現實主義；風險管控；美「中」關係

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to explore the strategic development and development constraints of PRC's maritime powers. Through the analysis of structural realism and geostrategy, it analyzes from the perspectives of historical politics and power politics, interprets the core of PRC's strategy of maritime power on the axis of national interests, and adopts the perspective of international relations theory. The concept of hierarchy (world-region-one country) specifically discusses the historical argumentation, interest game and mechanism construction generated by the strategic development of PRC's maritime power. Following this study, this study believes that PRC's strategic strategy for the maritime powers is based on the sea and land pooling, and realizes its five targets in the form of regional sea power, namely: rational and orderly development of marine resources; effective protection of marine ecological environment; The marine economy operated steadily; the maritime rights and interests were effectively maintained; and the level of marine technology was greatly improved. At the same time, PRC requires countries to practice in accordance with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea in the form of peaceful sea rights. "Diplomatic approach - compromise" will be the core concept of resolving territorial sovereignty. However, when PRC develops the current maritime rights and interests of the aircraft carrier, it does have the shadow of offensive realism. In the long run, the strategic development and changes of PRC's maritime power will depend on economic and military strength. On the whole,PRC's strategy for maritime powers is based on three variables: intention, ability, and action. The core issue is what PRC wants to build into a maritime power. PRC is attempting to develop it in a "peaceful sea power" approach in 2020. It has become a medium-sized ocean power. In 2050, it has become a world-class maritime power. Its future development is worthy of our attention. In recent years, PRC's "core interests" have been broadened and the bottom line has been set for the PRC to deal with peripheral issues. At present, PRC is proposing to build a "new" relationship between the "China" and the United States, a new type of military relationship, and a new type of sea power relationship, in an attempt to gain the initiative. The "core interests" seem to have exerted the effect of warning and diplomatic leverage. In the long run, the future changes in the order of the two "strong" sea powers in the Asia-Pacific region will depend on the actual capabilities and layout strategies of the two sides.