氣候變遷對水資源系統脆弱度與回復力之影響評估

The Impact Assessment on Vulnerability and Resilience of Water Resources System under Climate Change

黃柏勛(Po-Hsuan Huang)

指導教授 ： 童慶斌

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/生物環境系統工程學研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2013.01526

摘要

本研究目的在分析氣候變遷影響下，各供水系統供需情勢之變化，並藉由脆弱度之空間分布及回復力變化分析，探討氣候變遷對水資源系統造成之衝擊。研究中利用NCDR推動之TCCIP計畫提供之大氣環流模式輸出資料設定未來氣候情境，結合頭前溪水資源系統動力模式模擬研究區域內水資源使用情形，並分析各標的用水之可供水量，藉由供水承載力之推估評估水資源之供需缺口。接著藉由脆弱度之量化，評估頭前溪流域內水資源系統脆弱度之空間分布情形，最後透過回復力理論檢視氣候變遷是否會對水資源系統之回復力造成影響。
研究結果顯示，未來因水資源需求大幅增加，再加上河川流量受氣候變遷影響，將使得供水承載力推估結果小於頭前溪流域供水系統之需水量，表示未來在氣候變遷所造成之衝擊將會使得頭前溪流域水資源供不應求。而頭前溪地區之水資源脆弱空間分布在氣候變遷之影響下，雖然頭前溪流域整體用水風險尚未達高脆弱度，但仍有部分鄉鎮市之脆弱度受到公共用水需水量增加而提昇，故此脆弱度等級較高之地區將為調適策略優先執行對象。另外，針對回復力變化之分析中，公共用水回復力指標分析結果顯示氣候變遷之衝擊將使得供水系統回復能力下降，需要更長的時間以從失敗狀態復原；而農業用水回復力則顯示出一期作之回復力不僅較二期作低，且在氣候變遷影響下，一期作受到河川流量不足影響，回復力更將大幅降低。
總結研究之成果，可看出氣候變遷將造成頭前溪流域水資源系統顯著之衝擊；此外，於承載力、脆弱度及回復力之分析中，不同GCMs之結果有著一致性，表示不同GCM模式之氣候推估情形透過不同評估方法皆能得到相似之結果，提高研究結論之可能性，值得相關單位之重視，並儘速擬定調適行動。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 供水承載力 ； 脆弱度 ； 回復力 ； 系統動力模式

並列摘要

This study aims to access the changes between water supply systems and subjects of water demand under the influences of climate change with the analysis framework of vulnerability and resilience. First, the carrying capacity of the Touchien watershed water supply system is simulated by the water supply system dynamics model based on future climate scenarios derived from the general circulation models (GCMs) output data. Then, the gaps between water supply and demands are further analyzed. Furthermore, the quantitative indicators are applied to evaluate the spatial distribution of vulnerability of the Touchien watershed and the changes of resilience considering the impacts of climate change. The results indicate that a lower carrying capacity of the water supply system under climate change and significant increase in future water demands will lead to an insufficient water supply in the future. According to the spatial distribution of vulnerability analysis, despite that all regions in the Touchien watershed do not reached a high degree of vulnerability, some of them have an increased vulnerability due to the increase in public water demand. The regions with an increased vulnerability should have top priority to implement the adaptation strategies. The resilience indicators show that both public water resilience and agricultural water resilience have a decrease trend under climate change, which means a longer time for the water supply system to recover from a water shortage. In addition, the agricultural water resilience in first growing period is not only lower than second growing period, but also facing a greater decline. Summary of research results can explain that climate change has a serious impact on water supply system. Moreover, the assessment of carrying capacity, vulnerability and resilience are consistent for each GCM and increase the possibility of research findings. Therefore, this study worth the attentions from related water agencies which should develop adaptation actions as soon as possible.

並列關鍵字

climate change ； carrying capacity of water supply ； vulnerability ； resilience ； system dynamics model

參考文獻

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