動態供需契約與產能投資策略之整合

Coordination of Supply Contract and Capacity Investment Strategy

傅喬(Chiao Fu)

指導教授 ： 吳政鴻

國立臺灣大學/工學院/工業工程學研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2013.10656

摘要

本研究探討供應鏈合約設計與長期產能投資決策，考慮兩階層供應鏈中下游端開始建立自有產能情況中，下游得以掌握生產成本與增加產能利用彈性，而上游則面臨訂單損失與下游所轉嫁之產能利用率變異風險；本研究期望以供應端角度出發，利用長期與短期供應鏈契約之結合保障上游利潤，並發展長期產能投資策略。
在每期期初景氣不確定性消除後，上游公布長約與短約價格，下游零售商使用長約預約接下來連續兩期產品，利用短約加訂當期不足的數量；此外，上游與自有產能之下游將在每期作產能投資決策；在上述過程中，上游均為決策領導者。本研究建構數學模型，結合賽局理論求解上下游短期決策，再進一步結合動態規劃方法，推導長期決策，探討契約設計中之各項元素對長期產能投資之影響。

關鍵字

供應鏈合約 ； 產能擴充 ； 動態規劃 ； 賽局理論

並列摘要

This research studies contract design and capacity investment problem in a two-echelon supply chain consisting of a supplier and a downstream retailer who has in-house capacity. After building in-house capacity, the retailer would use his own capacity first. Under such situation, the risk of the variance of capacity utilization would be transferred to suppliers. The objective of this research is to protect the suppliers’ profit by exploring the coordination of supply contract (combining long-term and short-term contract) and capacity investment strategies.
At the beginning of each period, the demand uncertainty would be realized, and then the supplier would offer both long-term and short-term contracts. In long-term contract, the retailer makes a reservation for the next two successive periods; in short-term contract, the retailer orders products to fulfill the reserved deficiency. Additionally, the supplier and the retailer would make capacity investment decision in every period. The supplier has higher market power, making the capacity investment decision first and deciding the contracts. To solve the problem, we build a mathematical model, using game theory to decide the short-term decisions and exercising the dynamic programming to obtain the optimal policy in long-term.

並列關鍵字

supply chain contract ； capacity investment ； dynamic programming ； game theory

參考文獻

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