考量軌道系統營運穩定度與效率之最佳軌道容量規劃決策支援模式

Optimization Model for Capacity Planning with Consideration of Operational Stability and Efficiency

黃紹原(Shao-Yuan Huang)

指導教授 ： 賴勇成

國立臺灣大學/工學院/土木工程學研究所/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2015.10631

摘要

全球鐵路運輸近年來日益繁忙，為了滿足需求，鐵路營運者常須運行更多列車以輸運旅客。然而，鐵路運輸系統有其容量限制，一味增加列車班次可能會造成系統穩定性降低。為了營運更多列車同時保持有一定穩定度，鐵路營運者常需考慮升級基礎設施提升容量。爰此，決策者必須在容量規劃中妥善分配預算，選擇最適切的方案，將經費花費在最重要的路段。
本研究在考量穩定度與效率之下，建立最佳化決策支援模式進行各區間之最佳容量規劃。考量縮短閉塞區間長度、多軌化、車站升級等相關升級方案，首先利用「容量提升方案列舉器」將各區間所有可行方案提出之後，再以「容量分析模組」以及「穩定度分析模組」計算出各方案的容量及列車延滯，並輸入本研究所研發之「最佳化容量規劃模式」，以最小化建設成本、旅客延滯成本以及營運成本為目標，決定各區間之最佳容量提升方案。
本研究針對臺鐵基隆至新竹區間估計不同的未來旅客需求和預算以進行分析。首先利用本模式在不同的旅客需求之下，求出不同的最佳容量提升方案，並以不同的最佳化模式說明了本研究在考慮旅客延滯成本下的優勢，再以預算上限以及旅客時間價值進行敏感度分析。本研究之最佳化容量規劃模式可以在最小化建設成本、旅客延滯成本以及營運成本下提出最佳容量提升方案供決策者做為參考，並可以進一步分析該方案之整體延滯成本與容量使用效率之間的關係，使營運者提供更穩定的運輸服務。

關鍵字

鐵路運輸 ； 最佳化模式 ； 容量規劃 ； 容量分析 ； 穩定度分析

並列摘要

Railway transportation systems around the world become more and more crowded in metropolitan area nowadays. The operator had to run more trains to meet the increasing demand. However, the railway system has its capacity limitation, running more train without increasing the capacity can lead to instability. In order to operate more trains on the same section and maintain the system stability, the operator has to look into the possibility to upgrade the infrastructure.
This research develops a capacity planning framework to help planners enumerate possible capacity expansion options and to determine the optimal investment plan for meeting future demand. This framework has four stand-alone tools: (1) a “Capacity Expansion Option Enumeration” that enumerates possible expansion options along with their cost and capacity effects; (2) an “Capacity Analysis Module” that determines the capacity of all section in each capacity expansion option; (3) an “Stability Analysis Module” that calculates the expected delay time of all section in each capacity expansion option based on the capacity and service plan; and (4) an “Optimal Capacity Planning Model” that determines which portions of the line need to be upgraded with what kind of capacity expansion options. Results from the case studies demonstrate that the proposed capacity planning framework can take into account the tradeoff between cost and reliability in capacity planning options. The use of this capacity planning framework will help railway agencies provide efficient and reliable services to their passengers.

並列關鍵字

Railway Transportation ； Optimization Model ； Capacity Planning ； Capacity Analysis ； Stability Analysis

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