氣候變遷對櫟林帶特徵種之衝擊評估

Impact Assessment on the Characteristic Species in Quercus Zone under Climate Change

陳巧霖(Chiao-Lin Chen)

指導教授 ： 邱祈榮

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/森林環境暨資源學研究所/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2014.01581

摘要

氣候變遷對於生態系的衝擊十分的可觀，為了預測氣候變遷對物種的影響，本研究以2003年行政院農委會林務局推動的「國家植群多樣性調查及製圖計畫」所收集的物種資料，以櫟林帶中21種特徵種為研究對象。氣候資料使用台灣氣候變遷評估與資訊平台計畫 ( Taiwan Climate Change Projection & Information Platform, TCCIP )提供之溫量指數、一月均溫、夏季降雨量與冬季降雨量為因子，未來情境則選用IPCC提出之A1B模擬情境，之後利用Maxent套裝軟體進行物種分布機率預測作業。結果顯示未來櫟林帶核心區海拔平均上升至2,192m的高度，約上升了296.83m，而海拔分布範圍將縮減約60.12m。特徵種中海拔分布範圍減少最多者為假柃木(Eurya crenatifolia)，次者為台灣扁柏(Chamaecyparis obtusa var. formosana)。另外，以脆弱度進行評估的結果顯示，脆弱度指數大於5所占面積最大者為台灣扁柏，次者為赤柯(Cyclobalanopsis morii)。特徵種熱點方面顯示，以中央山脈南段與南澳等地區物種數目變化最大。整體而言，未來櫟林帶將往高海拔移動，且未來氣候下分布於南部者明顯減少，多往北部山區集中。

關鍵字

櫟林帶 ； 脆弱度 ； 分布熱點 ； 特徵種 ； 最大熵值法

並列摘要

Climate change has a great impact on ecosystems. In order to predict the impact of climate change on species, this study selected 21 characteristic species of Quercus zone in the project, "Taiwanese National Vegetation Diversity Inventory and Mapping Project ", of Forestry Bureau in 2003. This study chose average temperature in January, warmth index, summer precipitation, and winter precipitation of which provided by Taiwan Climate Change Projection & Information Platform (TCCIP) as the climate factor. Futhermore, A1B, provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was selected as the future scenario and Maxent software was used to predict the probability of species distribution. The results showed that the core area of the Quercus zone would retreat to 2,192 meters in the future, which would be 296.83 meters higher than the current altitude. Besides, the altitude distribution range would be reduced approximately 60.12 meters as Eurya crenatifolia and and Chamaecyparis obtusa var. formosana show the most declination respectively. In addition, the vulnerability assessment results showed that the vulnerability index greater than 5 and occupying the most space is Cyclobalanopsis morii. In terms of hotspots, number of species in southern part of the Central Mountain Range, Smangus and Nan Oau would reduce the most. This study emphasized that Quercus zone would retreat towards higher altitudes and most of all species would concentrate in the northern mountains in the future.

並列關鍵字

Quercus zone ； vulnerability ； hotspot ； characteristic species ； maximum entropy

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